[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1229 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 07N11W to 05N13W 04N20W, and 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from
04N24W to 03N32W, to 03N44W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 75 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ from 30W eastward. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong to the south of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ from 30W eastward. Isolated moderate within 180 nm to
the north of the ITCZ between 33W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans Mexico. Upper level
NW-to-W wind flow is moving across the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from a 1018 mb SE Louisiana low pressure
center to coastal NE Mexico, just to the south of the border with
Texas, covering the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds and possible rainshowers are from 120 nm to 330 nm away,
to the SE and SSE of the cold front.

A weak cold front extends from SE Louisiana to coastal NE Mexico,
just to the south of the border with Texas. Weak low pressure that
is associated with the front will move southeastward to the far
north central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of southeastern
Louisiana tonight, with the cold front extending from it to 24N95W.
The low will reach 29N86W by early Saturday, with the cold front
extending from it to near 25N90W to 23N95W. The low and front are
expected to dissipate by late Sunday night. A second and stronger
cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday, and reach from the NE Gulf to the SW Gulf on Wednesday.
Strong north to northeast winds and building seas will follow in
the wake of this front. Gale-force wind conditions are possible
in the far west central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night, and in
the far SW Gulf of Mexico near Veracruz on Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Precipitation: Isolated moderate is within 250 nm of the coast
of Central America from the easternmost sections of Honduras
to the easternmost parts of Panama. The precipitation is related
to wind speed convergence that is present in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge,
is on top of the area of precipitation.

Fresh northeast to east trade winds will remain across most of
the region through Sunday night. Expect fresh to strong winds
along and near the coast of Colombia. Strong high pressure
building north of the area will allow for winds and seas to
increase early next week in much of the central and eastern
Caribbean Sea. Long-period northeast to east swell will begin to
propagate through the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean from Sunday
through Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N49W to 26N60W. The front becomes
stationary from 26N60W to the northern coast of Haiti near 20N72W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180
nm to the SE of the front, and within 90 nm to the NW of the
front.

A second cold front/stationary front is 120 nm to 180 nm to the NW
of the first such front. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible
within 180 nm to the NW of the second frontal boundary.

The frontal boundaries that is comparatively more to the east is
forecast to weaken gradually through Saturday night. The second
cold front will move quickly southeastward, and it will merge
with the northern part of the cold front, to the east of the area,
by early Saturday evening. The western part of the cold front
will be left behind as a trough in the northwest waters, from
Saturday night into early Sunday. The trough will move to the
WNW, from Sunday afternoon through Monday, as strong high
pressure builds southward across the waters that are to the north
and northeast of the Bahamas. The resultant tight gradient will
bring increasing winds and building seas to the same waters from
Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. These conditions are
expected to begin to diminish with time, into Wednesday. The next
cold front is expected to move into the far northwest waters late
on Tuesday night. The front will reach from 31N72W to west central
Cuba by late Wednesday. Strong north to northeast winds will
follow this front.

$$
MT
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