[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N09W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 00N48W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong from 02S-04N between 05W-13W
south of Liberia. Along the ITCZ, scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm to the north and south of the ITCZ between 19W-
30W. Latest water vapor imagery indicate the presence of drier
air limiting convection west of 38W to the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche along 91W/92W from
21N southward. Broken to overcast clouds and possible showers
are within 260 nm to the northwest of the trough. Areas of fog
stretch from the Lower Rio Grande Valley to the NE Texas coast.
Ridge remains in control with a 1021 mb high pressure centered
over Mississippi and Alabama. ASCAT indicate light to moderate
anticyclonic wind flow across the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will shift east of the area today in response to a
cold front that will move off the Texas coast early Fri. Weak low
pressure may form along the front over the northern Gulf Fri and
shift northeast of the area into Sun, allowing the front to stall
and weaken over the western Gulf. A ridge of high pressure will
build across the central Gulf Mon, before shifting east of the
area late Mon ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off
the Texas coast Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front passes through the Windward Passage
enhancing scattered showers and tstorms over the region. Drier air
is apparent in the water vapor imagery, from SE of Hispaniola to
the Leeward Island and west of Jamaica across the NW Caribbean Sea.
An inverted trough is seen in the mid levels in the SW Caribbean
Sea which is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection
across the SW Caribbean along the coast of Colombia, Panama and
Costa Rica, mainly south of 12N. A few scattered showers are still
lingering north of 12N to 18N. ASCAT suggest moderate trades
across the east and central Caribbean while a northeast moderate
to fresh winds are seen west of 74W.

High pressure building north of the area will support moderate to
fresh trade winds across the region through early next week, with
fresh to strong winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia. Long-
period northeast to east swell will begin to propagate through the
Tropical N Atlantic waters Sat night and into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves through 32N51W to 27N59W, to 20N73W
near the SE Bahamas. A cold front is moving eastward behind the
stationary front from 31N57W to 25N67W to 22N74W in the central
Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within
120 nm on either side of the boundary north of 20N. Further east,
a cold front extends south from a 1008 mb low pressure to 23N20W
to 28N30W. A few showers are noticeable in the vicinity of the
front. A 1033 mb high pressure remains in control across the
remainder of the basin.

A cold front to the southeastern Bahamas will continue southeast
and merge with a stationary front over the southeast part of the
area. The merged front will continue to move east of the area
tonight, leaving a stationary front through the southern Bahamas
into Sat. A weak cold front will move across the northwest waters
Fri night, then be overtaken by another cold front that moves off
the Carolinas on Sat. This front will weaken to a stationary front
late on Sat and to a trough on Sun that will retrograde westward
as a trough through Sun night as strong high pressure builds
southward across the waters northeast and east of the Bahamas. The
associated tight gradient will bring increasing winds along with
building seas over these same waters beginning late on Sun. These
conditions are expected to begin to diminish on Mon afternoon.

$$
Torres
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