[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
649 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N11W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03N30W
and to 02N36W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate
and locally strong is within 270 nm to the north of the ITCZ
between 18W and 35W, and to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
from 24W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along
94W/95W from 23N southward. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are within 150 nm to the east of
the trough, and within 100 nm to the west of the trough, and from
23N to 25N between 92W and 96W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico, away from the areas of cyclonic wind flow that are
associated with the SW Gulf of Mexico surface trough.

High pressure in the central and NE Gulf of Mexico will shift to
the east of the area today. A cold front will follow, moving off
the Texas coast early on Friday. It is possible that weak low
pressure may form along the front in the northern Gulf of Mexico
on Friday, and shift northeast of the area into Sunday, allowing
the front to stall and weaken in the western Gulf of Mexico.
A ridge will build across the central Gulf of Mexico on Monday.
The area of high pressure will shift to the east of the area late
on Monday, in advance of a stronger cold front, that is expected
to move off the Texas coast on Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front passes through the Windward
Passage, to the NW coastal waters of Jamaica, to central Belize.
Upper level dry air in subsidence is apparent in the water vapor
satellite imagery, from SE Cuba/the Windward Passage toward the
Gulf of Honduras, and encompassing the area that stretches from
Guatemala to Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate from the
eastern coastal waters of Jamaica, in the Mona Passage, and near
the Turks and Caicos Islands and Great Inagua.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough
in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from Jamaica southward between 75W and
Central America. The comparatively strongest precipitation
currently is along the coast of Panama between 78W and 80W from
10N southward.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough that passes through
Guadeloupe to 14N70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate between
60W and 70W.

High pressure, building to the north of the area, will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the region through early next
week. Expect fresh to strong winds to be pulsing off the coast of
Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front curves through 32N51W to 30N60W, to 26N65W,
and to 21N70W. The front becomes dissipating stationary from
21N70W, through the Windward Passage into the NW Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated
strong within 270 nm to the east of the front from 21N northward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 30N
northward between 48W and 60W.

A cold front, that ranges from 200 nm to 270 nm to the NW of the
stationary front, passes through the waters that are about 45 nm
to the east of Bermuda, to 30N66W, to 26N70W, and to the Bahamas
near 24N76W near the Exuma Cays. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front extends from a 1005 mb low
pressure center that is near 31N11W, brushing the coasts of
Morocco and the Western Sahara, to 26N21W, and to 29N31W.
Precipitation: No significant deep convective precipitation is
apparent.

The current Bermuda-to-central Bahamas cold front will move
southeastward, and it will merge with the stationary front that is
just to the east of it. The merged front will continue to move to
the east of the area tonight. A stationary front will be left
behind, through the southern Bahamas, into Saturday. Another
front will move off the Carolinas, from late Saturday into Sunday,
and shift eastward. It is possible that this front may stay to the
north of the area. Strong high pressure will follow the front
into the northwest Atlantic Ocean. Expect fresh to strong
easterly winds and building seas between the Bahamas and Bermuda
by late Sunday. These winds will diminish early next week as the
high pressure shifts eastward.

$$
MT
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