[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N11W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to 03N20W
03N27W, to the coastal areas of Brazil near the Equator along 52W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 540
nm to the north of the ITCZ between 18W and 40W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the south of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ from 26W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along
94W/95W from 23N southward. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of
the trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers rest of the Gulf of
Mexico, away from the areas of cyclonic wind flow that are
associated with the SW Gulf of Mexico surface trough. A 1017 mb
high pressure center is near 24N91W.

High pressure will persist in the central and NE Gulf of Mexico
through Thursday evening. The high pressure center will shift to
the east of the area, in advance of the next cold front that is
forecast to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Friday. It is possible
that weak low pressure may form along the frontal boundary on
Saturday, in the NE Gulf of Mexico, and then move northward, out
of the area, on Sunday night. Fresh to strong east to southeast
winds are expected to the northeast of the low. Atlantic Ocean high
pressure then will build westward, across the Gulf of Mexico through
Monday. The high pressure area will help set up fresh to strong
southerly wind flow in much of the western Gulf of Mexico, in
advance of another approaching strong cold front. This front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Monday night.
The front will be followed by strong to possible near gale force
northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Windward Passage, to the NW
coastal waters of Jamaica, to central Belize. Upper level dry air
in subsidence is apparent in the water vapor satellite imagery,
from SE Cuba/the Windward Passage toward the Gulf of Honduras, and
encompassing the area that stretches from Guatemala to Honduras.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from the southern coastal waters
of Jamaica to Haiti.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough
in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 14N southward between 76W and
Central America. The comparatively strongest precipitation
currently is in the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia.

The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough that passes through
Guadeloupe to 14N70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate between
60W and 70W.

The current stationary front is expected to dissipate gradually
through Thursday. High pressure, currently across the Gulf of
Mexico, will slide toward the ENE, and build to the north of the
area on Thursday night and Friday, with the associated pressure
gradient increasing the Caribbean Sea trade winds. Northwest to
north swell will continue to impact the Atlantic Ocean and the
Atlantic Ocean passages through the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N53W to 31N54W. A stationary front
continues from 31N54W to 28N61W 21N70W, and beyond the Windward
Passage into the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 210 nm to the east of the
front from 22N to 28N, and within 210 nm to the west of the front
from 29N northward.

A cold front, that is about 360 nm to the NW of the stationary
front, passes through the waters that are about 75 nm to the west
of Bermuda, to 28N70W, to 25N75W. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front extends from a 1008 mb low
pressure center that is near 32N11W, across the Canary Islands, to
27N25W, and to 29N32W. Precipitation: No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent.

The current stationary front will dissipate gradually through
Thursday afternoon. A reinforcing cold front extends from 31N67W
to the N Bahamas near 26N75W. The reinforcing front will move
eastward quickly, across the waters, through Thursday evening,
and become stationary in the southeast waters on Friday evening.
The reinforcing front will be followed by weak high pressure that
will move off the Carolinas. A second cold front will move off N
Florida on Sunday evening, and move NE of the area on Sunday
night. Strong high pressure will build southward on Monday and
Monday night, resulting in strong northeast to east winds in
the NE offshore waters.

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net