[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to the coast of Brazil
near 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm to
the north of the ITCZ between 18W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure ridging covers most of the Gulf, anchored by
a 1018 mb high near 24N92W. A weak surface trough is in the
western Bay of Campeche from 19N95W to 23N96W. No significant
convection is seen over the basin. The latest scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin.

High pressure will persist over the western and central Gulf
through late this afternoon, then shift east of the area Thursday
ahead of the next cold front entering the northwest Gulf on Friday.
Weak low pressure may form along the frontal boundary late Friday
into Saturday over the north central Gulf, then lift north of the
area through Sunday. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are
expected to the northeast of the low. Atlantic high pressure will
then build westward across the Gulf through Monday, and help set
up fresh to strong southerly flow over much of the western Gulf
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. This front is expected
to move into the NW Gulf Monday night into Tuesday followed by
strong to possible near gale force northerly winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is draped across the NW Caribbean, passing
through the Windward Passage near 20N74W and stretches to the
southern Yucatan/northern Belize near 18N88W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen in the Windward Passage. A pre-frontal trough
is noted from 16N88W to 18N77W with some showers seen along the
boundary. Scattered moderate convection is also moving across
portions of Hispaniola but not currently reaching the Caribbean.
The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing convection in the
SW basin S of 12N between 73W-83W. Otherwise, the rest of the
Caribbean is under fair weather conditions. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh trades in the central basin with
gentle to moderate trades elsewhere.

The front is expected to gradually dissipate through Thursday.
High pressure currently across the Gulf of Mexico will slide east-
northeastward and build north of the area Thursday night and
Friday, with the associated pressure gradient increasing the
trades. Northwest to north swell will continue to impact the
Atlantic waters and Atlantic passages through the next few days.
Northwest to north swell will continue to impact the Atlantic
waters and Atlantic passages through the next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A reinforcing cold front enters the waters near 31N73W to north
of the Bahamas near 27N79W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of
the front. Meanwhile, a cold front enters the central Atlantic
near 31N52W and stretches southwest to 25N61W, then stalls from
that point to northern Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is seen within 120 nm of the front between 63W-
72W. Another cold front in the eastern Atlantic is seen from
31N16W to 30N30W, then stalls from 30N30W to 31N33W. No
significant convection is associated with it. High pressure
dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1031 mb high near
40N28W.

The cold/stationary front will gradually dissipate through
Thursday afternoon. The reinforcing cold front is preceded and
followed by mainly strong winds. The front will quickly move
eastward across the waters north of 27N through early Thursday
and become stationary over the southeast waters by early Thursday
evening. It will be followed by weak high pressure that will move
off the Carolinas. Yet another cold front will move into the
region from the north, reaching as far south as 27N by Saturday
night and become stationary through Sunday night. It will then
dissipate Monday. Strong high pressure will build southward Sunday,
resulting in strong northeast to east winds and building seas
north of this front. These conditions will diminish some Monday
night.

$$
AKR
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