[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front is approaching 31N81W. The 03-hour forecast position
for the cold front is 31N80W 30N81.5W. Expect SW gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet in NE swell, from
30N northward between 76W and 80W. Expect the gale-force winds for
at least the next 24 hours or so. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N17W, to 02N40W and 01N46W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong within 60 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 120 nm to the north of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the NE corner of Florida, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, to the west central Gulf of Mexico, to the
coast of Mexico near 21N97W. A surface trough is about 100 nm to
the SE of the front between the Florida coast and 93W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds are to the N and NW of the
cold front from 90W westward. Rainshowers are possible within 60
nm on either side of the trough and cold front.

Broad upper level W to NW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
The upper level wind flow is cyclonic, from 24N northward from 93W
eastward, in agreement with the deep layer trough that is
supporting the current cold front.

The current cold front is ushering in fresh to strong NW winds
in the northern and SW Gulf of Mexico. The front will sweep south
of the southeast Gulf of Mexico on Monday. This will allow high
pressure to build into the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on
Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery and the GFS model for 250 mb show an
anticyclonic circulation center along the central border sections
of Honduras and Nicaragua. Broad anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea, from Central America, toward 70W. Weak upper level
cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Caribbean Sea from
70W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N to 18N
between 60W and 69W.

Low pressure, moving E from the U.S.A., has weakened the ridge
that is to the N of the basin. Large N swell, that is passing
through the Atlantic passages into the NE Caribbean Sea, will
diminish by Tuesday night. A cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean Sea on Monday night, and then weaken and dissipate by
Wednesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is approaching 31N81W. The 03-hour forecast position
for the cold front is 31N80W 30N81.5W. Expect SW gale-force winds,
and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet in NE swell, from
30N northward between 76W and 80W. Expect the gale-force winds for
at least the next 24 hours or so. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23
KNHC...for more details.

A dissipating cold front passes through 32N38W to 30N40W, and to
24N47W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 24N47W to
22N57W, and to 19N65W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong within 240 nm to the east of the frontal boundary from 22N
northward, and within 30 nm on either side of the front between
48W and 52W.

A surface trough is along 55W/56W from 19N southward.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
17N to 20N between 50W and 60W.

Large, long-period N swell spreading S across the Atlantic Ocean
waters, will persist through Tuesday. A weak ridge that is along
28N will shift E of the area, as a cold front progresses eastward
from the NE Florida coast. Gale-force winds are expected on both
sides of this front north of 29N tonight and Monday.

$$
MT
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