[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast into the
western Atlantic waters late tonight into early Monday. This
front will enhance the winds across the area, reaching strong to
gale force range on either side of the front mainly north of 30N
between 76W-80W by tonight, 02/0300 UTC, and will continue
through Tuesday night, 03/0600 UTC. Seas will range from 12-17 ft.
Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the
AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N48W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01N-08N
between 19W-45W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted south of the
monsoon trough near the African coast from 02N-07N and E of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front continues to press south and east across the Gulf.
The front enters the waters from the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W
and stretches westward to 25N96W and bends southward to the
Mexican coast near 22N98W. Showers are seen along the front.
Showers are also moving across the eastern Gulf about 100 nm ahead
of the front. A 1013 mb low is analyzed in the western Bay of
Campeche near 21N97W with a trough extending along the low from
19N96W to 23N97W. Upper level ridging extends across the southern
portion of the Gulf. The latest scatterometer data and surface
observations depict moderate to fresh NW winds in the NW Gulf with
gentle to moderate NW winds in the NE Gulf. Light to gentle
southerly winds are noted in the southern Gulf.

The cold front will reach from near Tampa Florida to Tampico
Mexico tonight, followed by fresh to strong NW winds over the
northeast Gulf. The front will sweep south of the southeast Gulf
by Monday and high pressure will build over the central Gulf
behind the front through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep ridging extends across most of the basin which is inhibiting
deep convection. A stationary front over the central Atlantic
extends SW into the U.S. Virgin Islands enhancing scattered
showers in the area. Some scattered showers are present from
the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean. The latest
scatterometer data and surface observation depict moderate to
fresh trades in the central and NW Caribbean, while gentle to
moderate trades prevail elsewhere.

High pressure building north of the area is allowing moderate to
occasionally fresh northeasterly winds across most of the
Caribbean, while large northerly swell is moving through the
Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will veer more
easterly and diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts
eastward, ahead of another cold front expected to move into the
Yucatan Channel Tuesday morning. The front will stall and
eventually dissipate from the Windward Passage to northeast
Nicaragua through mid week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information about the
developing gale in the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N41W to a
1015 mb low near 21N56W, then transitions to a stationary front
at that point to 18N66W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of
this front from 24N43W to 31N39W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted along and 250 nm ahead of the front
mainly north of 23N. Surface ridging is building in the wake of
the front, anchored by a 1018 mb high near 27N67W. To the south,
a surface trough is analyzed from 09N55W to 16N54W with scattered
showers along and east of it, mostly E of 68W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin. The latest
scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the
incoming cold front in the western Atlantic, N of 29N and W of
78W..

Large, long-period N swell spreading S across the Atlantic waters
will persist through Tuesday. High pressure along 28N will shift
east of the area this evening ahead of a cold front moving off
northeast Florida coast. Strong to gale force winds are expected
on either side of this front north of 30N through Monday.

$$

AKR
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