[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dorian is centered near 15.8N 62.7W at 28/0000 UTC
or 260 nm SE of Ponce Puerto Rico moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are
45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends
outward to 270 nm in the eastern semicircle, with isolated strong
convection seen extending to 90 nm from the center in the NE
quadrant. Scattered moderate convection extends out to 120 nm in
the NW quadrant and 60 nm in the SW quadrant. The west-northwest
motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a NW
turn on Wed. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move
near or over western and central Puerto Rico on Wed. On Thursday
night and Friday, the center of Dorian is forecast to move near or
to the east of the Turks and Caicos and southeastern Bahamas.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, followed
by weakening as Dorian interacts with the higher terrain of Puerto
Rico Wed night. Dorian is expected to gradually re-strengthen on
Thursday and Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Six is centered near 31.8N 71.8W at 27/2100
UTC or 355 nm W of Bermuda moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered
strong convection extends out 180 nm in the SE quadrant. A turn
to the NE with an increase in forward speed is expected on Wed.
The cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm on Wed, but it
should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics and weaken
on Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's
environment at this time, limiting convection. Isolated showers
are south of 11N between 35W and the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W from 20N southward,
moving W around 15 kt. Dry air is noted in the wave's environment,
limiting convection over the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers
are noted in the SW Caribbean south of 13N and west of 80W and
inland over Panama through Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 14N17W to 11N30W to
10N51W. Scattered moderate showers are seen from 05N-10N between
10W-30W. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen along the
coast of Senegal.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017
mb high centered near 25N86W. Mid to upper level ridging is also
over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers with isolated tstorms
are north of 26.5N and east of 92W. Similar activity is seen along
coastal areas from Freeport Texas to South Florida. The ASCAT pass
from midday Tuesday shows moderate SE to S winds in the western
Gulf, but fresh in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle
winds are in the E Gulf. High pressure will continue across the
Gulf of Mexico through Saturday night, maintaining gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Dorian is producing cloudiness and convection in
the E Caribbean east of 66W. See section above for details. A
tropical wave is along 86W. See section above for details.

Dry air covers most of the basin west of 67W. Scattered showers
and tstorms are mainly only occurring over the islands of the
Greater Antilles. The ASCAT pass from late Tuesday morning shows
strong trades from 11N-15N between 73W-78W, with near gales from
11N-13N between 74W-77W.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central
Caribbean through midweek. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds
will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Dorian,
T.D. Six and the tropical wave in the central Atlantic.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from T.D. Six to
28N72W to 25N76W. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted from
23N-27N between 71W-79W including most of the Bahamas. Fresh to
strong winds are mainly noted on the E side of the trough and N
of 27N. An upper-level low near 23N67W is inducing scattered
showers and tstorms from 23N-26N between 66W-69W. To the east,
another elongated upper-level low near 31N53W is inducing
scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 24N-32N between 49W-
56W. The remainder of the basin is under surface high pressure
ridging, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 36N40W.

Fresh to strong winds south of T.D. Six and east of the surface
trough will diminish to less than 20 kt by Wed evening as T.D. Six
continues moving farther away to the north of the area. Meanwhile,
Tropical Storm Dorian will move north of the Mona Passage Wed
night. By 2pm local time Friday, Dorian is forecast to be near
24N72W, then to near the E coast of central Florida on Sunday.

$$
Hagen
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