[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dorian centered near 14.2N 61.8W at 27/1500 UTC or
60 nm WNW of St. Lucia moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
from 12N-17N between 57W-63W. The west-northwest motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a northwest turn
on Wed. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move
across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next
few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move
near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of
Hispaniola on Thursday. On Thursday night and Friday, the center
of Dorian is forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos and
southeastern Bahamas. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Six centered near 31.2N 71.2W at 27/1500 UTC
or 370 nm SE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving SE at 2 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convection is to the
south of the low along a surface trough that extends from 30N71W
to the NW Bahamas near 24N76W. Scattered moderate convection
extends from 22N-31N between 68W-77W. Some slight strengthening
is expected over the next day or so and the depression is expected
to intensify to a tropical storm by tonight or on Wednesday.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's
environment at this time, limiting convection. Scattered showers
are near the wave axis south of 10N near the monsoon trough.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Dry air is noted in the wave's environment,
limiting convection at this time over the NW Caribbean Sea.
Scattered showers are noted inland and along the eastern coast of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica in the southern portion of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W to
09N33W to 06N47W. Scattered showers are noted along the coast
of Africa south of Guinea-Bissau to Liberia extending west of
the monsoon trough to 27W and from 06N-10N between 32W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1020
mb high centered near 39N77W. Scattered moderate convection has
developed along the Florida west coast from the FL panhandle to
the Keys. A few showers extend into the Gulf from 25N-29N between
82W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds on the
eastern Gulf and moderate southeast winds west of 90W. High
pressure will continue across the Gulf of Mexico through Sat
night, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and light seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Dorian is approaching the eastern Caribbean at this
time. See the section above for details.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Refer to
the section above for details.

Dry air covers much of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades across the basin, with locally fresh
winds noted across the central Caribbean between 75W-81W.

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south-central
Caribbean through midweek. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds
will pulse over the Gulf of Honduras tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Dorian,
T.D. Six and the tropical wave in the E Atlantic.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from T.D. Six
from 30N71W to 25N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 22N-31N between 68W-77W. To the east, an upper-level low
in the west-central Atlantic is enhancing scattered showers from
24N54W to 30N51W. Scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh
easterly winds from 12N-17N between west of 68W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin.

Tropical Depression Six will become extratropical Fri morning as
it continues to the northeast. Tropical Storm Dorian, currently
moving into the eastern Caribbean, is forecast to move across the
northeast Caribbean through mid week before moving north of
Hispaniola to near 19.5N 69.0W by Thu morning. Dorian will then
track NW across the Bahamas through Sat night.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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