[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261201
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dorian centered near 11.9N 56.4W at 26/0900 UTC
or 200 nm ESE of Barbados moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50
kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
10N- 14N between 52W-58W. Dorian will turn toward the
west-northwest later today, with this motion continuing through
Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is
expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight
and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. See the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 275 miles south-
southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become a little
better organized overnight.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form later today or Tuesday while
the system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the
United States east coast.  The reconnaissance aircraft mission for
today has been canceled. The chance for tropical cyclone formation
of this system within the next 48 hours is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W from 06N-20N,
moving W at 10 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's
environment at this time, limiting convection. Scattered showers
are from 06N-10N between 29W-40W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from 09N-21N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Dry air is also noted in the wave's
environment, limiting convection at this time. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave's axis mainly north of 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Africa near 22N17W
to 15N27W to 12N45W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section above, no significant convection is noted at
this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered
showers are noted over the northwest Gulf north of 24N and west
of 90W. This activity is supported by upper level diffluence.

High pressure will prevail across the area through
Fri night. The high will maintain moderate to fresh south to
southeast winds over the waters west of 90W. Winds will be mainly
light to gentle east of 90W through the period. Upper level
disturbances will keep unsettled weather conditions over much of
the northern Gulf through tonight.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

Fair weather prevails across the basin as a dry Saharan airmass
covers the area. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across
the basin, with fresh winds over the central Caribbean and the
Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean
will gradually increase in areal coverage through tonight. Fresh
to strong east to southeast winds will continue pulsing over the
Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Refer to the section above for
details on T.S. Dorian, which is expected to enter the eastern
Caribbean on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on T.S.
Dorian and the surface low over the west Atlantic.

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the eastern Atlantic.

A 1010 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic near
33N73W. A surface trough extends from the low to 26N79W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and east of the
trough mainly north of 26N between 71W-77W. To the east, a 1018
mb high is centered over the west-central Atlantic near 26N59W.

The surface trough over the west Atlantic will shift slowly E
across the northern waters and dissipate by Wed night. Gentle to
moderate SE winds will continue across the area. T.S. Dorian,
currently in the tropical Atlantic, is forecast to move across the
eastern Caribbean as a hurricane by the middle of the week and
near the far southern waters as a tropical storm by Fri night.
Expect increasing winds and building seas for those waters
affected by Dorian.

$$

ERA
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