[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260529
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dorian centered near 11.7N 55.3W at 26/0300 UTC
or 260 nm ESE of Barbados moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
10N- 14N between 52W-58W. Dorian will turn toward the west-
northwest on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details.

An elongated area of low pressure centered about 300 miles
south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has changed little
in organization this evening.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form within the next few days while the system
moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United
States.  Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. The
chance for tropical cyclone formation of this system within the
next 48 hours is high.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 06N-20N,
moving W at 10 kt. Saharan dry air prevails in the wave's
environment at this time, limiting convection. Scattered showers
are from 06N-10N between 28W-38W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 09N-21N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Dry air is also noted in the wave's
environment, limiting convection at this time. Scattered showers
are noted over Hispaniola mainly north of 18N.

A tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula and EPAC
waters with axis along 88W from 05N-22N, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the EPAC waters
mainly south of 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 17N25W to 11N45W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, no
significant convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin. Scattered
moderate convection is noted over the northwest Gulf north of 24N
and west of 90W. This activity is supported by upper level
diffluence.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf of Mexico through Thu
night. The high will maintain moderate to fresh south to southeast
winds over the waters west of 90W. Winds will be mainly light to
gentle east of 90W through the period. Upper level disturbances
will keep unsettled weather conditions over much of the northern
Gulf through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

Fair weather prevails across the basin as a dry Saharan airmass
covers the area. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across
the basin, with fresh winds over the central Caribbean and the
Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean
will gradually increase in areal coverage through Mon. Fresh to
strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf of
Honduras at night Mon through Wed. Refer to the section above for
details on T.S. Dorian, which is expected to enter the eastern
Caribbean on Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on T.S.
Dorian and the surface low over the west Atlantic.

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the eastern Atlantic.

A 1011 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic near
31N75W. A surface trough extends from the low to 27N80W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along and east of the trough mainly
north of 26N between 70W-76W. To the east, a 1020 mb high is
centered over the west-central Atlantic near 28N64W.

The surface trough over the west Atlantic will shift eastward
across the northern waters. Gentle to moderate southeasterly
winds will continue across the area. T.S. Dorian, is forecast to
move across the eastern Caribbean as a hurricane by the middle of
the week and near the far southern waters as a tropical storm by
late in the week. Expect increasing winds and building over those
waters with the approach of Dorian.

$$

ERA
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