[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240532
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1013 mb low is located west of Miami, Florida near 26.1N80.9W
at 24/0300 UTC. A surface trough extends from 29N80W to 24N82W.
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted across the
western Atlantic and the eastern Gulf from 23N-27N between 79W-
82W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring over and near
the Bahamas from 22N-30N between 74W-79W. This system has changed
little in organization since this afternoon, but environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development. A
tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend. The low
is forecast to move generally northwestward near or over
southeastern Florida through tonight and then move northward to
northeastward over the Atlantic near the east coast of central
Florida on Saturday. After that, the system is expected to move
northeastward offshore of the southeastern United States coast.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over
the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida
peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. This
system has a high chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Recent satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated
with an area of low pressure, along with a tropical wave, located
about 1100 miles east- southeast of the Windward Islands has
become better defined. However, thunderstorm activity is limited
at this time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally
westward to west-northwestward near 15 mph. This system has a
medium chance of development over the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W S of 21N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W S of 15N, moving W
at 10 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure is indicated by the recent ASCAT
data near 10N45W. Scattered moderate convection is east of this
wave from 09N-12N between 45W-48W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W S of 22N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Saharan Dust is limiting convection along this wave,
and no significant activity is noted at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W S of 20N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted near
Cuba and Jamaica from 18N-21N between 77W-80W. There are also some
showers right along the wave axis occurring in Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 10N26W to 08N51W. The ITCZ extends from 07N55W to the coast of
Guyana near 06N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is along the
monsoon trough from 08N-12N between 23W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level low continues to linger over the western Gulf of
Mexico near 28N93W with surface ridging across the eastern and
central Gulf. A surface trough is near the mid-level low from
25N96W to 30N93W. Scattered showers are observed across the
western Gulf from 23N-28N between 90W-97W. The low mentioned in
the Special Features section is causing showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf--see above for more details. The
latest scatterometer data depicts light anti-cyclonic wind over
most of the basin with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds in
the western basin.

A surface trough over the NW Gulf will weaken tonight. Otherwise,
high pressure will prevail. Moderate to fresh south- southeast
winds will continue across the waters west of 90W through the
period, while mainly light to gentle winds continue east of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Numerous strong convection is currently moving across the
Windward Passage from 18N-21N between 73W-75W. Quick moving showers
are seen moving across the Lesser Antilles along with the eastern
portions of the Greater Antilles. Otherwise, relatively dry air
is inhibiting convection. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh
to strong trade winds north of NW Venezuela and N Colombia.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen the central Caribbean and
the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle trades are observed across
the rest of the basin.

Fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central Caribbean will
increase in areal coverage over the weekend and into early next
week. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the
Gulf of Honduras at night Monday through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features above for more information on the low over
South Florida.

Scattered moderate convection is seen across the central Atlantic
as a mid-level disturbance moves eastward over the area. This
convection is noted from 26N-31N between 53W-63W. Surface ridging
covers the rest of the basin from a 1025 mb near 33N52W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate southeast winds
across the W Atlantic.

An area of low pressure near S Florida will continue to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 72W the
next few days. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds
will continue across the area.

$$
AKR
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