[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Chantal is centered near 36.4N 40.8W at
23/1800 UTC or 495 nm W of the Azores moving SSE at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Chantal has
maximum sustained wind speed of 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Isolated showers are within 60 nm SW of the center. Chantal is
likely to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The remnant
low could dissipate by late Sunday or Monday. See latest NHC
forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC
for more details.

A 1013 mb low is off the coast of Miami Florida near 25.7N80.0W
at 23/1800 UTC. A surface trough extends from 30N80W across W
Cuba to near 21N80W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
are noted along the west coast of Florida, Cuba and the NW Bahamas
from 23N-21N between 72W-80W. The low is becoming better organized
and is forecast to move NW near or over the eastern FL peninsula
through tonight, and then move N/NE over the Atlantic near the
east coast of the central FLorida peninsula Saturday. If the
current trend continues, a tropical depression is likely to form
by Saturday night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and
central Florida peninsula through the weekend. There is a high
chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that a low pressure area has
formed in association with a tropical wave located about 1300
miles E/SE of the Windward Islands. The 1012 mb low pressure is
centered at 10.0N43.1W along a tropical wave from 14N42W to
04N43W. Plenty of cloudiness is present with limited convection
at this time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present 280
nm W of the low and isolated showers SE of the low.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 21N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the
wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W from 14N southward.
A 1012 mb low pressure is indicated by the recent ASCAT data. Most
of the convection associated with this wave is 280 nm W of the wave
with a few showers SE.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W from 21N southward,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted 08N11N between
49W-51W. Saharan Dust is limiting convection north of 12N-21N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W from 19N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over eastern
Cuba, Jamaica, and near the coast of Colombia and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
17N15W to 10N32W to a 1012 mb low near 10N43W to 07N50W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N53W to the coast of Suriname near 07N58W. Aside
from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 25W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid-level low is over the western Gulf of Mexico and ridge
to the east is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 23N-29N W of 89W. Scattered showers are noted
along the FL Panhandle and South of the Fort Myers. The latest
ASCAT pass shows moderate to locally fresh winds in the western
Gulf with light to gentle winds in the eastern Gulf.

High pressure extending from the Atlantic across the NE and
north-central Gulf will change little through early next week.
Moderate to fresh south-southeast winds will continue across the
waters west of 90W through the period, while mainly light to
gentle variable winds continue east of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean producing isolated
moderate convection over the SW Caribbean S of 10N. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is seen across the Greater
Antilles. Relatively dry air covers the rest of the Caribbean.
The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to locally strong winds in the
south-central Caribbean and light winds in the Gulf of Honduras.

Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse over the Gulf
of Honduras at night through Tue. The areal coverage of fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase
over the weekend and extend to the SW Caribbean by early next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1013 mb low and surface trough is off the coast of Miami
Florida. See Special Features above. A 1025 mb high is over the
central Atlantic near 33N52W. Of note in the upper levels, an
upper-level low is over the W Atlantic near 32N64W producing
scattered moderate convection from 26N-32N between 56W-64W.

A weak area of low pressure centered between the southeastern
coast of Florida and Andros Island will continue to support
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 72W the
next few days. The low is forecast to move near or over Florida
tonight, then back offshore near the coast of east- central
Florida over the weekend or early next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone development once
the system moves back over the Atlantic waters. Otherwise, gentle
to moderate southeasterly winds will continue across the area.

$$
MMTorres
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