[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Chantal centered near 38.8N 43.8W at 22/1500
UTC or 630 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is E of the center from 38N-40N between 40W-43W. See
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17/18W from 04N-20N,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N
between 16W-23W.

A 1012 mb low is embedded on the monsoon trough near 9.5N36W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-11N between 37W-40W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 19N46W to 10N45W to
06N43W, moving W at 20 kt. TPW imagery continues to show a
moisture maximum associated with the wave. Isolated light showers
are along and within 180 nm E of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67/68W from 08N-20N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers cover the NE Caribbean
north of 15N between 60W-70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 14N17W to a 1012 mb
low near 09N36W to 10N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to the
coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 07N-10N between
11W-16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high is centered over S Georgia near 32N84W. A surface
trough is over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 25N94W to 18N93W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-27N between 90W-96W.
Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over the SW Gulf near 23N94W. An upper level high is centered over
the N Yucatan Peninsula near 20N88W. Upper level diffluence is
over the N Gulf. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
27N-31N between 85W-97W.

The SW Gulf surface trough will move west of the of area by late
tonight. Fresh to strong southeast winds will follow in behind the
trough. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will remain
elsewhere across the area maintaining gentle to moderate winds
across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above.

Isolated moderate convection is over Jamaica. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean from 09N-12N between
79W-84W. This convection is mostly due to the eastern extent of
the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Of note in the upper levels,
an upper level high centered over the Atlantic near 22N65W is
producing easterly flow over the central and eastern Caribbean
with strong subsidence.

Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will develop over the
Gulf of Honduras tonight into early Fri, then diminish to mainly
moderate to fresh speeds through the rest of the period. Fresh to
strong northeast to east winds will continue over the south-
central Caribbean through Mon night while expanding in coverage.
These winds will reach the Hispaniola adjacent waters Sat night
through Mon due to the tightening of the gradient in the wake of
the next tropical wave to pass across the region. A tropical wave,
with axis near 69W will move across Hispaniola tonight and early
Fri, and across the western Caribbean Fri through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the Bahamas from 27N78W to beyond
central Cuba near 22N79W. Scattered moderate convection is from
23N-27N between 71W-79W. A 1025 mb high is over the central
Atlantic near 32N52W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper
level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N67W. Upper level
diffluence is producing scattered moderate convection from 28N-33N
between 58W-65W.

Over the W Atlantic, favorable upper-level conditions in
combination with a middle level trough S of 28N near 78W will
continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
waters W of 70W at least through Sat. A surface trough associated
with these features aloft, will move across the northern and
central Bahamas today and across Florida on Fri. The pressure
gradient between the surface trough and high pressure across the
remainder forecast waters will lead to the continuation of
moderate to locally fresh winds across the region the entire
period.

$$
Formosa
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