[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
620 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Chantal is centered near 39.1N 45.7W at
22/0900 UTC or 560 nm SE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at
15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the center from 38N-40N between 42W-
45W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20/21W S of 19N,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate with
isolated strong convection is seen from 10N-16N between 16W-23W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 19N45W to
12N44W to 05N40W, moving W around 20 kt. TPW imagery continues
to show a moisture maximum associated with the wave. Isolated
light showers are along and within 180 nm E of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 65/66W from
08N-21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered light to moderate
showers cover the NE Caribbean north of 15N between the Virgin
Islands and the Mona Passage.

A tropical wave in the SW Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche is
located along 95/96W S of 23N and stretches into the eastern
Pacific. This wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is
interacting with an upper level low and is producing scattered
moderate convection from 22N-26N between 88W-95W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 18N16W to a 1012
mb low near 10N34W to 10N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to
09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate convection is seen near and west of
the 1012 mb surface low from 08N-12N between 34W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low and a tropical wave are over the SW Gulf and
Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is seen strong
convection is seen over southern Belize and eastern Guatemala.
In the far SW Caribbean, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen south of 12N and west of 80W. Relatively dry
low to mid level air covers the eastern Caribbean and  from 22N-
26N between 88W-95W. Elsewhere S of 27N between 88W-95W,
scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are also seen near the Lower
Florida Keys. The latest ASCAT pass shows gentle winds across
much of the Gulf. However, fresh SE winds are in the eastern Bay
of Campeche east of the tropical wave.

A tropical wave with axis near Veracruz adjacent waters will move
W of the Gulf late today as the upper level low moves N over the
western Gulf. Expect enhanced shower and thunderstorm coverage
over the western Gulf today and tonight. Expect enhanced showers
and tstorms over the N Gulf on Friday as the upper trough moves
N. Fresh to strong SE winds are expected over the SW and central
basin today following the wave passage. Surface high pressure
will persist elsewhere, maintaining gentle to moderate winds
across the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen from
western Haiti to Jamaica to the Cayman Islands due to upper-level
diffluence. A surface trough over the Bahamas is also enhancing
the moisture in this region. An area of scattered moderate to
strong convection is seen over southern Belize and eastern
Guatemala. In the far SW Caribbean, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen south of 12N and west of 80W.
Relatively dry low to mid level air covers the eastern Caribbean
and portions of the central Caribbean. However, a tropical wave
in the E Caribbean is spreading scattered light to moderate
showers over the NE Caribbean. Latest ASCAT shows moderate
trades covering much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds in the
south-central basin off Colombia and NW Venezuela.

Fresh to strong winds will affect the Gulf of Honduras tonight
and will persist over the south-central Caribbean through Mon
night. Strong winds in the central Caribbean will extend to
Hispaniola adjacent waters Sat night through Mon due to the
passage of a tropical wave across the region. A tropical wave
will move across Puerto Rico today, Hispaniola by tonight, and
the western Caribbean Fri and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extending from the surface to the mid-levels is
currently over the Bahamas. A separate mid to upper level low is
near 31N68W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the much
of the Bahamas as well as the area within 120 nm either side of
a line from 26N73W to 29N66W to 32N64W. A 1025 mb high centered
near 32N52W is leading to surface ridging across much of the
remainder of the basin.

Upper level divergence and a middle level trough S of 28N will
continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
waters W of 70W at least through Sat. An associated surface
trough will move across the northern and central Bahamas today
and near South Florida on Fri. The surface trough will then move
N along the east coast of Florida this weekend. The system has a
low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days.
The pressure gradient between the surface trough and high
pressure across the remainder of the forecast waters will lead
to the continuation of moderate to locally fresh winds across
the region during the entire period.

$$
Hagen
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