[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200516
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

New satellite data received subsequent to the completion of the
20/0000 UTC surface analysis indicates that the far eastern
Atlantic tropical wave that was being analyzed along 16/17W near
the coast of Africa is actually little farther west. The wave axis
is along 21W from 06N-20N, moving W around 15 kt. TPW imagery
shows that the wave is accompanied by a large sure of high
moisture content. Scattered moderate convection is from 07.5N-13N
between 19W-27W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 03N-20N, moving
W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are from 05N-09N between
36W-43W. SAL is limiting showers over the remainder of the wave
axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W from 05N-21N,
moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen within 150 nm of the wave axis from 13N-22W
with some additional showers and tstorms between Jamaica and E
Cuba and over Haiti. Expect scattered to widespread showers and
tstorms to continue over the NW Caribbean through Tue.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to
10N26W to 08N30W to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to
06N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 27W-
34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface troughing and upper-level troughing over the SE U.S. are
leading to cloudiness along with scattered showers and isolated
tstorms across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The
precipitation is not intense at this time for most areas. In the
SE Gulf, convection is starting to increase now as a surface
trough and tropical wave approach from the east. Scattered
moderate convection is seen to the west of South Florida extending
to 85W. Similar convection is seen in the Yucatan Channel and the
Florida Straits. A weak surface trough is inducing scattered
showers over the Bay of Campeche south of 20N between 92W-95W.

Expect showers and tstorms to increase across the southern Gulf
Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface trough moves from east to west
across the area. The low pressure trough will be over the SW Gulf
on Wed, then track NW toward the Texas coast through Fri. A weak
high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic across the
northern Gulf will persist through the week. A low pressure
trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula each day will move W
and produce fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the
adjacent offshore waters each evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection over the NW Caribbean is associated with a tropical
wave. See section above for details. Scattered strong convection
is seen over northern Colombia. Drier air is over the E Caribbean
E of 72W with little to no significant showers. The latest ASCAT
pass from Monday evening shows strong trades in the south-central
Caribbean, with fresh trades over the remainder of the central
Caribbean.

A tropical wave over the western Caribbean near 80W will exit the
western Caribbean by tonight. Bermuda high pres N of the area
will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south central
Caribbean through early Wed. Then, winds will diminish to fresh
speeds through the rest of the week as the high shifts eastward.
Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds are expected over the Gulf of
Honduras early this morning and again tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is noted over the western Atlantic from 29N77W
to 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Old Bahama
Channel from 22N-25N between 76W-81W. Scattered showers and
tstorms cover the area elsewhere from 19N-31N between 72W-84W.
Additional scattered showers and tstorms are north of Hispaniola.
High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1023 mb high near 32N54W. In the far eastern Atlantic, strong to
near gale force NE winds are expected to persist offshore Morocco
and near the Canary Islands for the next couple of days.

The trough extending from just N of Cuba near 23N80W to 29N77W
will continue tracking W and move inland over central and southern
Florida this morning. Scattered showers and tstorms will accompany
this trough. A high pressure ridge across the northern waters
will generally support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of
22N and moderate to occasionally fresh E winds south of 22N
through this week. Strong E winds will pulse early this morning
between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net