[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the coast of W Africa along 16W from 06N-
20N, moving W at 10 kt. The wave model diagnostics indicates this
wave is at 700 mb. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N
between 12W-17W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 03N-19N, moving
W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the wave
axis S of 10N. SAL is limiting showers over the remainder of the
wave axis.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 05N-20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
Hispaniola, Jamaica, E Cuba, N Colombia, and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from Senegal near 14N16W to 08N30W to 07N50W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N50W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W.
Aside from the convection mentioned with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 20W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1013 mb low is centered over S Georgia near 32N84W a surface
trough extends W from the center to N Louisiana near 32N91W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the N Gulf N of 26N and E
of 95W. Similar convection is over S Florida and W Cuba. A surface
trough is over the E Bay of Campeche from 23N90W to 17N92W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 17N-21N between 89W-92W. In
the upper levels, upper level diffluence is enhancing convection
over the NE Gulf of Mexico.

A weak high pressure ridge extending from the western Atlantic
across the northern Gulf will persist through the week. A low
pressure trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula each day
will move W and produce fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over
the adjacent offshore waters each evening. A low pressure trough
will develop over the SW Gulf on Wed, then track NW toward the
Texas coast through Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Aside from the convection associated to the tropical wave,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the W
Caribbean, and Central America mostly due to an upper level low
centered over W Honduras near 15N87W. The eastern extent of the E
Pacific monsoon trough is also enhancing convection over Costa
Rica, Panama, and N Colombia.

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean near 77W will cross
the western Caribbean Tue. High pressure north of the area near
Bermuda will support fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean through early Wed. Winds will then diminish to
fresh speeds through the rest of the week as high pressure shifts
eastward. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds are expected over the
Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough is noted over the western Atlantic from 29N74W
to 24N79W. Scattered moderate convection over the Bahamas from
23N-27N between 76W-80W. A 1023 mb high is over the W Atlantic
near 32N61W. GOES 16 RGB Geocolor imagery shows the Saharan dust
across most of the basin from 12N-31N E of 40W.

The W Atlantic surface trough will continue tracking westward
across the western Bahamas through tonight, then move inland over
central and southern Florida Tue. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this trough. A high pressure ridge
across the northern waters will generally support gentle to
moderate E to SE winds north of 22N and moderate to occasionally
fresh E winds south of 22N through this week. Strong E winds will
pulse tonight between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola.

$$
Formosa
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