[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Rainshowers are
possible from 10N to 20N between 30W and 40W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong monsoon trough-related rainshowers are within
60 nm on either side of 07N between 32W and 38W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. The upper air soundings, from
18/1200 UTC for Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic, showed
that the wave had passed through there already. The wave is moving
across Haiti now. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in
the waters that are between Cuba and Haiti. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere around
Hispaniola, in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Senegal near 16N17W, to the
southern part of the Cabo Verde Islands, to 09N33W and 07N40W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N40W, to 07N47W, and to 05N54W in the NW
corner of French Guiana. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers
are from 14N to 16N between 19W and 21W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of
07N between 32W and 38W, and within 30 nm on either side of 07N42W
06N44W 05N47W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 10N to 14N between 60W and 62W. Other
isolated moderate rainshowers are possible to the south of 20N17W
16N21W 12N24W 08N45W 12N56W 12N60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level inverted trough extends from the NE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico to the central sections of the Gulf. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N
northward from 92W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere to the east and
north of the line that extends from the south central coast of
Louisiana, to 21N96W, to the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
along 20N.

A surface ridge passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the east
coast of Florida near 28N, to 26N90W, and 18N95W in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate to fresh winds, in the NE Gulf of Mexico, are associated
with a 1013 mb low pressure center that is in south central
Alabama. Expect the same wind speeds for tonight and tomorrow
morning. Strong winds will pulse in the western Yucatan Peninsula
adjacent waters tonight and on Monday night. The northern part of
a tropical wave will move from the western Caribbean Sea to the
Bay of Campeche on Tuesday night and Wednesday, accompanied by
abundant tropical moisture. Relatively weak high pressure will
extend westward from the Atlantic Ocean along the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast through the end of this week, otherwise.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough from 250 mb to 700 mb passes across Cuba to Honduras and
Nicaragua. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are in the
coastal waters of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, from 10N80W
to 12N82W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are in NE Costa Rica, in the southern half of
Honduras, and in the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from Jamaica
westward.

The current 73W/74W tropical wave will combine with high pressure
to the north of the area, in order to support fresh to strong
winds in the south central Caribbean Sea from tonight through
Tuesday night. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras from tonight through Monday night. Moderate to fresh
winds will prevail for the remainder of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 28N70W 25N73W, to the Bahamas near
22N74W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within
700 nm to the east of the trough, and within 300 nm to the west of
the trough.

A surface ridge is along 33N34W, to a 1024 mb high pressure center
that is near 31N59W, to 30N75W, beyond 28N along the Florida east
coast.

The W Atlantic Ocean 28N70W-to-22N74W surface trough will track
westward, and move inland into Florida on Monday night. Scattered
rainshowers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. The
pressure gradient S of the ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean
generally will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of 22N,
and moderate to fresh E winds S of 22N through the forecast
period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night between
the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola through Tuesday night.

$$
MT
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