[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 04N-19N, moving west
at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N between
28W-40W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 04N-20N, moving west
at 15-20 kt. Upper air soundings from Santo Domingo, Dominican
Republic, showed wave passage today. Scattered moderate
convection is over Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over N Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 16N17W to the Cape
Verde Islands near 15N24W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from that
point to Suriname near 06N55W. Besides the convection mentioned in
the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 09N-19N between
10W-21W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-08N between
40W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is E of Trinidad from
09N-12N between 56W-61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb low is over the Florida panhandle near 31N85W.
Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of
27N between 80W-92W to include the north Gulf States. Similar
convection is over S Florida. Isolated moderate convection is over
W Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface ridging prevails across
the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate winds across most of the basin except the Bay of
Campeche, where fresh winds are noted.

The Florida Panhandle low will support fresh to strong S to SW
winds over the NE Gulf tonight. Strong winds will pulse over the
waters adjacent to the western Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters
tonight and Mon night. The northern portion of a tropical wave
will move from the western Caribbean Sea over the Bay of Campeche
Tue night and Wed accompanied by abundant tropical moisture.
Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will extend W from the
Atlantic to the northern Gulf coast through the end of this week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
widely scattered moderate convection is over Puerto Rico and the
Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba,
Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over S Guatemala,El Salvador, W Honduras, E
Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level low is centered NE of Honduras near 17N83W. Upper level
diffluence is over the SW Caribbean enhancing convection.

The tropical wave over the central Caribbean along 72W will
combine with high pressure N of the area to support fresh to
strong winds over the south central Caribbean tonight through Tue
night. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the Gulf of
Honduras tonight through Mon night, then moderate to fresh winds
will prevail the remainder of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 27N71W to
22N73W. A 1024 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 33N60W. A 1021
mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N27W. Of note in the upper
levels, a large upper level trough is over the W Atlantic with
axis from 32N57W to to beyond central Cuba near 22N78W. Isolated
moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 21N-31N between
60W-78W to include the Bahamas.

The W Atlantic surface trough will track W and move inland over
Florida Mon night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this trough. The pressure gradient S of the high
pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will generally support
gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of 22N and moderate to fresh E
winds S of 22N through the forecast period. Fresh to locally
strong winds will pulse at night between the Turks and Caicos
Islands and Hispaniola through Tue night.

$$
Formosa
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