[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic is along 36W from 03N-21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at
700 mb. Scattered showers are noted within 240 nm either side of
the wave axis, south of 12N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W from 03N-20N,
moving W at at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted by model
diagnostics at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty, air
from the Sahara, which is inhibiting convection. Scattered
moderate convection is noted, however, inland over over Guyana.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 07N-22N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over Cuba,
N Colombia, and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 08N30W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to the coast of
Suriname near 06N55W. Aside from the showers associated with
tropical waves mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate
convection is noted S of the monsoon trough from 06N-10N between
12W-24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak 5-10 kt surface ridging prevails from the W Atlantic to the
central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is over N
Florida N of 28N. Similar convection is over the mouth of the
Mississippi River. More scattered moderate convection is over the
E Bay of Campeche S of 21N and E of 94W. In the upper levels, a
large upper level high is centered over E Texas near 32N95W,
producing NE to E upper level winds winds over the Gulf. Strong
subsidence is over the W Gulf.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern
Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight
seas through mid week. Moderate winds off the NW coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening
in association with a local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave currently over the Central Caribbean.

Dry Saharan air covers most of the basin with no shower activity
over the eastern and central Caribbean. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over the NW Caribbean N of 17N and W of 79W, mostly
due to an upper level low centered near 17N81W.

A tropical wave across the central Caribbean near 77W will move
across the NW Caribbean and Central America on Sun and exit west
of the basin by Mon. A second tropical wave along 59W will move
across the Lesser Antilles tonight across the eastern and central
Caribbean through Tue, and west of the basin by Thu. A third
tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean by late Tue.
The passage of these waves along with high pressure north of the
area will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the central
and southwest basin, increasing to around 30 kt along the
Colombian coast at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of N Florida N of
29N and W of 80W. A 1024 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 33N48W. A 1018 mb low is centered over the E
Atlantic near 31N29W. The low is mostly void of convection. Of
note in the upper levels, diffluence is producing scattered
moderate convection E of the Bahamas, from 24N-26N between 78W-
70W.

The surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic across
the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through mid week.
This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds north of 22N,
and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, pulsing to strong along
the N coast of Hispaniola each afternoon through evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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