[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
739 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic is along 33W from 03N-21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict the wave well at
700 mb. Scattered showers are noted south of 12N and within 300
nm E on either side of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W from 03N-20N,
moving W at at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted by model
diagnostics at 700 mb. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty air from
the Sahara, which is inhibiting convection across most of the
wave's area over the waters. Scattered moderate convection is
noted over the southern portion of the wave affecting Guyana.
Expect scattered showers across portions of the Windward Islands
Sunday into Monday.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W from 07N-22N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Saharan air prevails in the wave's
environment, which continues to inhibit significant convection.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia near
13N17W to 07N32W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to
09N56W. Aside from the showers associated with tropical waves
mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate convection is
noted within 195 nm south of the monsoon trough mainly east of
22W, and scattered showers prevail within 300 nm on either side of
the boundaries between 35W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1017
mb high centered near 24N84W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails across southeast U.S. and some of this activity is
reaching the eastern half of the basin mainly north of 26N and
east of 90W. To the southwest, the diurnal thermal trough is
developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and moving west reaching the
Bay of Campeche with scattered moderate convection. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the
basin.

High pressure will remain across the central and eastern Gulf
allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight seas
through mid week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night
off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with the
local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave currently over the Central Caribbean.

Dry Saharan air covers most of the basin with little to no shower
activity seen. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon
trough has its axis along Panama's latitude, enhancing convection
over this area. Scattered showers are possible to reach the
Caribbean waters south of 10N due to this. The latest ASCAT pass
depicts fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean
from 12N-15N between 72W-77W, and fresh trades over the remainder
of the central Caribbean south of 17.5N. Moderate trades prevail
elsewhere.

The passage of the tropical waves along with high pressure north
of the area, will continue to support fresh to strong winds in
the central and southwest basin, increasing to around 30 kt along
the Colombian coast at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently across the basin.

A surface trough extends across the west Atlantic from 29N74W to
31N68W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the trough
mainly north of 27N between 60W-69W. This activity is supported by
upper level diffluence. To the east, a surface trough extends from
22N53W to 24N48W. Another trough is from 23N42W to 29N34W.
Scattered showers prevail along both troughs. A weak 1018 mb low
is centered near 31N29W with scattered showers. Surface ridge
prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered near 25N33W.

The surface ridge will persist from the central Atlantic across
the northern Bahamas to the Straits of Florida through mid week.
This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds north of 22N,
and moderate to fresh winds south of 22N, pulsing to strong along
the N coast of Hispaniola each afternoon through evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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