[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
128 AM EDT Sat Aug 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic is along 30W from 04N-19N,
moving W at 15 kt. Wave model diagnostics depicts the wave well,
and the TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's
environment. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave
axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W from 02N-20N,
moving W at at 10 kt. The wave is well depicted by model
diagnostics. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty air from the
Sahara, which is inhibiting convection at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 07N-21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture within
this wave. Scattered moderate convection is over W Hispaniola.
Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the wave axis N of
15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N30W to 09N38W to 07N46W. The ITCZ extends from
07N46W to 07N54W. Besides the showers associated with tropical
waves, isolated moderate convection is south of the monsoon from
04N-08N between 33W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1017 mb high near 25N86W. 5-15 kt anticyclonic surface winds are
over the Gulf. Scattered moderate convection persists over S
Mexico between 90W-96W. In the upper levels, a large upper level
high is centered over E Texas near 31N94W. Strong subsidence is
over the W Gulf.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central and eastern
Gulf allowing for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight
seas through Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night
off the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a
local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical wave currently across the basin.

10-20 kt surface winds are noted over the Caribbean Sea, with
strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Besides the convection
mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate
convection is over the Gulf of Honduras. In the upper levels, a
small upper level low is centered over Jamaica near 18N78W.
Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the center. An
upper level high is centered over the E Caribbean near 16N67W with
strong subsidence.

The tropical wave along 71W will move across the central Caribbean
tonight and Sat, then exit the western Caribbean through Mon
morning. The Atlc high pressure ridge will strengthen across the E
Caribbean over the weekend behind this tropical wave and act to
freshen the trades across the south-central Caribbean and coastal
Colombia. Another tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean
Sun morning and will continue to support fresh to strong winds in
the central and southwest Caribbean through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
two tropical waves currently across the basin.

A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N56W.
A 1016 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 29N29W. A
surface trough extends from 31N24W to the low center to 25N40W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered E of the Bahamas near
24N67W. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm of the low
center.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to extend a
ridge west-southwest to the Straits of Florida. This pattern will
support moderate to locally fresh tradewinds south through east
of the central Bahamas. A pair of tropical tropical waves will
move across the southeastern waters tonight through early Mon to
produce active weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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