[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the east Atlantic extends its axis along 28W
from 05N-19N, moving W at around 15 kt. Wave model diagnostics
depict the wave well, and the TPW imagery depicts abundant
moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are noted
along the wave's axis mainly south of 16N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from
02N- 20N, moving W at around 10 kt. The wave is depicted by model
diagnostics. The wave is embedded in dry, dusty air from the
Sahara, which is inhibiting convection at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 22N69W
to 06N69W, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant
moisture within this wave. Scattered showers prevail across the
northern portion of the wave affecting Hispaniola and adjacent
waters.

A tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula and the EPAC
waters with axis along 90W from 06N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt.
TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in the wave's environment.
Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Yucatan Peninsula
and the northern portion of Central America between 88W-94W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N17W to 08N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 06N50W. Besides
the convection associated with tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough and east
of 18W, and from 05N-10N between 30W-47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1017 mb high analyzed near 25N85W. No other surface feature is
noted at this time. Diurnal afternoon showers and thunderstorms
continue across the Florida Peninsula reaching the far east Gulf
waters east of 84W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevailing across the whole basin.

Similar weather conditions will continue through early next week.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night off the NW coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
two tropical waves currently across the basin.

An upper level low centered north of the area is spreading cloud
cover along with showers and tstorms over the Windward Passage
Hispaniola enhancing the tropical wave activity. The central
Caribbean between 70W-82W is free of any significant shower
activity. A significant push of African dust approaching from the
east has reached the Lesser Antilles. Expect this dry air to push
west toward the central Caribbean over the next couple of days
behind the tropical wave.

Active weather will continue tonight across far western
waters behind the tropical wave across the Yucatan Peninsula. The
second tropical wave will move across the central Caribbean
tonight and Sat, then exit the western Caribbean Mon morning. The
Atlantic high pressure ridge will strengthen across the E
Caribbean over the weekend behind this wave and act to freshen
the trades across the south-central Caribbean and coastal
Colombia. A third tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean
Sun morning and will continue to support fresh to strong winds in
the central and southwest Caribbean through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
two tropical waves currently across the basin.

An upper-level low is centered near 24N67W. This feature is
enhancing scattered moderate convection from 20N-30N between 60W-
70W. A 1021 mb high is near 31N51W. To the east, a 1016 mb surface
low is near 29N29W, with weakening stationary front extending from
it to 25N40W. Southeast of the low/front, a pair of 1019 mb
surface highs are analyzed at 29N20W and 23N35W, respectively.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will prevail over the
offshore waters. This will continue to support light to gentle
winds across the area, except for the waters east and south of the
central Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are
expected due to the passage of a couple of tropical waves across
the eastern and central Caribbean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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