[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the Atlantic extends its axis along 24W and S
of 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Wave model diagnostics depicts the
wave well and the TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the
wave's environment. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 180 nm of the wave axis from 06N-09N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 50W and S of
11N, is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 50
nm of the wave axis between 05N-08N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 66W S of 21N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance
in addition to TPW imagery showing abundant moisture in the
wave's environment. Scattered showers are noted along the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico in addition to adjacent waters from 16N-
21N between 63W- 67W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
in northern Venezuela near the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W and
S of 20N, moving W at 10 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture
in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is seen across the Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean, from
16N- 21N between 82W- 88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 10N24W to 08N34W. The ITCZ begins from 08N34W to 06N49W,
then continues W of a tropical wave near 06N51W to the coast of
French Guiana near 06N53W. Besides the convection associated with
tropical waves described above, scattered showers with embedded
thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ 28W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms across the
Louisiana and Florida Panhandle coasts, are seen across the Gulf.
This activity is occurring mostly E of 89W and N of 25N. There is
also an isolated thunderstorm in between the SW Florida coast and
the Florida Keys. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the
basin anchored by a 1016 mb high near 26N85W. Scattered
thunderstorms enhanced by the Yucatan trough is moving across the
SW Bay of Campeche, S of 19N and W of 93W. Latest scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin
with moderate winds over the Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf allowing
for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight seas through
Tuesday. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night off the NW
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local
trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently moving through the basin.

An upper level trough is extending from the central Atlantic to
the north-central Caribbean and is enhancing scattered moderate
convection off the coast of Hispaniola. Isolated thunderstorms are
reaching the SW basin from convection being enhanced by the East
Pacific monsoon trough, S of 12N and between 76W-83W. Fair weather
prevails across the remainder of the basin, outside of the areas
near the tropical waves. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh trades in the central Caribbean with light to gentle trades
elsewhere.

A tropical wave over the Gulf of Honduras will move inland early
this morning. Another tropical wave south of the Mona Passage will
move across the central Caribbean today and Saturday, then exit
the western Caribbean Sunday into Monday. Strong easterly winds
will follow over the tropical wave across the south central
Caribbean and coast of Colombia Saturday through Sunday. A third
tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Sunday night, move
across the eastern Caribbean Monday and across the central
Caribbean through Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently moving through the basin.

A surface trough is seen along the Bahamas Islands from 23N79W to
26N78W which is sparking isolated thunderstorms. Another surface
trough is seen north of Hispaniola and across the Turks and
Caicos, from 20N72W to 25N70W. As an upper trough moves east into
the central Atlantic, it extends southward into the north-central
Caribbean, causing scattered moderate convection from 22N-31N
between 61W- 73W. A front continues to be stalled across the
Atlantic, entering the waters from 31N25W to 23N48W. Showers are
seen along the boundary with isolated thunderstorms along the
tail-end of the front between 45W-49W. Surface ridging prevails
across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high near
28N56W. A 1018 mb high is analyzed near 25N30W and a 1019 mb high
is near 20N21W. Moderate easterly winds are noted over Hispaniola.

A ridge extending E to W along 25N will maintain gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas into early next week, except for
moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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