[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the Atlantic extends its axis along 23W and S
of 19N, moving W at 10 kt. Wave model diagnostics depicts the
wave well and the TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in the
wave's environment. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 180 nm of the wave axis from 08N-11N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 49W and S of
11N, is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 130
nm of the wave axis mainly S of 06N.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 65W S of 20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance
in addition to TPW imagery showing abundant moisture in the
wave's environment. This wave has a surface signature. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico in addition to adjacent waters from 16N-
21N between 64W- 67W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
in northern Venezuela near the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W and
S of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. TPW imagery shows abundant
moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 17N-20N between 82W-87W. The presence of this
feature is also enhancing scattered moderate to strong convection
across central America mainly W of 86W and mostly in Honduras.
Some of this strong convective activity is reaching the Gulf of
Honduras S of 17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Western Sahara near
23N16W to 11N22W to 07N34W to 04N48W. Besides the convection
associated with tropical waves described above, scattered showers
with embedded thunderstorms are seen within 90 nm of the monsoon
trough between 25W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers that were occurring over Florida have moved
into the Gulf, mostly E of 88W and N of 27N. Otherwise, surface
ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1017 mb high near
25N85W. Scattered moderate convection enhanced by the Yucatan
trough has moved into the Bay of Campeche, S of 20N and E of 93W.
Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle anticyclonic
winds across the basin with moderate winds over the Bay of
Campeche near the Yucatan.

Weak high pressure will remain across the central Gulf allowing
for gentle to moderate winds and relatively slight seas through
Monday. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse each night off the NW
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a local trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently moving through the basin.

An upper-level low is centered over the Windward Passage enhancing
scattered moderate convection across Cuba and Hispaniola. Isolated
thunderstorms are reaching the SW basin from convection being
enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough. This is mostly right
off the NW Colombian coast. Fair weather prevails across the
remainder of the basin, outside of the areas near the tropical
waves. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades in the
central Caribbean with light to gentle trades elsewhere.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean along 85W will move into
the Yucatan Peninsula overnight. An active tropical wave across
the E Caribbean will cross the Caribbean through Sunday,
accompanied by widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Strong easterly winds are expected to return to the south central
Caribbean and coast of Colombia behind the tropical wave Saturday
through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Tropical Waves section above for information on the
tropical waves currently moving through the basin.

Convective activity has dissipated across the western Atlantic as
the upper trough pushes farther east into the central Atlantic. A
surface trough is north of Hispaniola from 20N71W to 27N67W. This
is providing an anchor for scattered moderate convection from
22N-28N between 62W-67W. A line of thunderstorms is also seen in
the central Atlantic ahead of the upper trough from 29N-31N
between 65W-69W. The cold front that was pushing south has now
stalled. It enters the waters near 31N25W and stretches west to
25N46W. Showers are seen along this boundary. Surface ridging
prevails across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high
near 27N56W and a 1020 mb high near 24N30W. Moderate easterly
winds are noted over Hispaniola.

A ridge extending E to W along 28N will persist through the
weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected S of 22N
through Sunday. An area of active showers and thunderstorms N
through NE of Puerto Rico will shift northward over the next few
days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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