[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
145 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 00N24W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is moving off the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia
from 08N- 03N between 10W- 21W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 01N-06S between 24W- 36W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging continues across the Gulf with some showers
moving off the Texas coast in the northwest portion of the basin.
Light to gentle east winds are seen in the eastern half of the
Gulf. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are in the western
Gulf, with some fresh winds near the south Texas and northern
Mexico coast. Light smoke is also noted over the W Gulf W of 94W.

High pressure NE of the area will support mainly moderate to
locally fresh winds through the week, with occasionally stronger
winds off Texas. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of a
trough across the peninsula. The high pressure may weaken by the
end of the week as broad troughing or weak low pressure develops
near the Florida Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough continues to extend from the southeast Bahamas
to western Haiti. This feature is providing focus for convection
across Hispaniola. Showers are also seen through Puerto Rico and
Jamaica. Low-topped showers are moving across the Lesser Antilles
with some showers beginning to dissipate over Honduras. Fresh to
strong trades are north of Colombia, otherwise gentle to moderate
trades are seen across the rest of the basin. Areas of smoke could
reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras.

The upper level trough along 74W is significantly enhancing
convection. This will lead to a slight risk of isolated flash
flooding particularly along the higher terrain of eastern Cuba and
Hispaniola through Thursday.

High pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia
will support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean
through the week, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia
during the late night and early morning hours. Winds will diminish
slightly by the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient
slackens slightly. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere. Easterly swell will build seas in the tropical north
Atlantic by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the Bahamas near 25N723W to
southwest Haiti near 18N74W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over the Bahamas from 23N-20N between 69W-
74W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen to the north and
east of the trough from 28N-23N between 70W-75W. A 1027 mb high is
over the central Atlantic near 32N49W. Farther east, a surface
trough is observed near 35N36W to near 26N36W.

A surface trough will linger over the Bahamas while high pressure
builds NE of the area. This pattern will support moderate to fresh
E to SE winds, except fresh to strong S of 27N through Wednesday
night. Winds will also pulse to strong offshore of Hispaniola,
mainly at night. The trough will weaken and shift westward toward
the end of the week and upcoming weekend allowing for winds to
diminish and for seas to subside.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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