[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
716 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 03S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is inland over W Africa from from 06N-12N
between 08W-12W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-06S
between 23W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 kt SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with mostly
fair weather. A band of broken to overcast high cloud has entered
the W Gulf W of 95W. Light smoke is also noted over the W Gulf W
of 94W.

High pressure NE of the area will support mainly moderate to
locally fresh winds through the week, with occasionally stronger
winds off Texas. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula at night with the daily development of a
trough across the peninsula. The high pres may weaken by the end
of the week as broad troughing or weak low pressure develops near
the Florida Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Bahamas near 26N74W to SW Haiti
near 18N74W. Scattered moderate convection is over E Cuba,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is also over Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia.
Scattered showers are inland over Honduras. 15-25 kt tradewinds
are over the Caribbean Sea. Additionally, areas of smoke could
reduce visibility over the Gulf of Honduras. Of note in the upper
levels, a sharp upper level trough is along 73W significantly
enhancing convection. A slight risk of isolated flash flooding
particularly along the higher terrain of eastern Cuba and
Hispaniola is expected until Thursday.

High pressure N of the area and low pres over Colombia will
support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean through
the week, pulsing to near gale off the coast of Colombia during
the late night and early morning hours. Winds will diminish
slightly by the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient slackens
slightly. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.
Easterly swell will build seas in the tropical north Atlantic by
mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from the Bahamas near 26N74W to SW Haiti
near 18N74W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Bahamas
from 21N-29N between 71W-77W. A 1026 mb high is over the W
Atlantic near 33N67W. The tail end of a cold front extends from
31N59W to 29N60W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front.
A 1025 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 32N46W.
A 1024 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N30W.

A surface trough will linger over the Bahamas while high pressure
builds NE of the area. This pattern will support moderate to fresh
E to SE winds, except fresh to strong winds S of 27N through Wed
night. Winds will also pulse to strong offshore of Hispaniola,
mainly at night. The trough will weaken and shift westward toward
the end of the week and upcoming weekend allowing for winds to
diminish and for seas to subside.

Otherwise, surface high pressure will generally maintain gentle
to moderate trades over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and S
of 20N between 25W and the Windward Islands for the next several
days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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