[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale: Meteo France is forecasting gale
force winds today, near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone
of Agadir. Gale force winds are likely occurring now and should
last until about 27/1200 UTC. Please see the Meteo France High
Seas Forecast product at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-
meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to
06N18W to 01N27W. The ITCZ continues from 01N27W to the coast of
Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered showers prevail within 75 nm on
either side of the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ mainly west of 19W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the southeastern portion of the
basin. It was analyzed as a cold front from 26N82W to 23N87W,
then becomes weak from that point to 18N92W. No significant
convection is related to these fronts at this time. A surface
trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N88W to
18N90W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 130 nm east
of the trough affecting the Yucatan Channel and west Caribbean.
Surface ridging is building across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 28N93W.

The front will extend from the Straits of Florida to just NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula today where it will stall and dissipate
through tonight. A remnant trough will drift NW through Sun
then dissipate. High pressure and return flow will prevail across
the basin through next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers prevails across the Yucatan Channel and west
Caribbean ahead of a surface trough that extends across the
Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere across the basin, mostly quiet
weather prevails. Fresh trades are noted over the south-central
Caribbean south of 14N between 68W-75W, while moderate winds
prevail elsewhere.

Winds will pulse fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean,
expanding in coverage to the entire central Caribbean, and
offshore of Honduras and in the lee of Cuba by early next
week as high pressure N of the area build southward. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next
week. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical N Atlantic
by next week.

Potential remains for showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola,
with slight risk of flooding by late Sunday into Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N75W to
27N80W. No significant convection is noted along the front. To
the east, a pre-frontal trough extends from 29N75W to 27N78W with
scattered moderate convection within 150 nm east of the trough.
Latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh to strong SW winds north of 29N
west of 74W. A 1019 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
25N61W. Further east, a pair of surface troughs extend over the
central Atlantic. The first extend from a 1013 mb low near 32N42W
to 25N50W. The second trough extends from 27N38W to 20N46W.
No significant convection is observed along these features at this
time.

The cold front will continue shifting east today, then stall and
dissipating from 27N65W to the central Bahamas by early Sun. High
pressure will build in from the NE in the wake of the front with E
to SE flow dominating through next week. Expect pulses of fresh
to strong winds N of Hispaniola mainly at night starting Sun
evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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