[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale: Meteo France is forecasting gale
force winds today, near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone
of Agadir. Gale force winds are likely occurring now and should
last until about 27/0000 UTC. Please see the Meteo France high
seas forecast at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 00N29W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered showers prevail within 75
nm on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the southeastern portion of the
basin. It was analyzed as a cold front from 26N82W to 22N90W, then
becomes stationary from that point to 18N94W. No significant
convection is related to these fronts at this time. A surface
trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N87W to 19N89W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 130 nm east
of the trough affecting the Yucatan Channel. Surface ridging is
building across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered near 28N93W.

The front will extend from the Straits of Florida to just NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula overnight where it will stall and dissipate
through Sat night. A remnant trough will drift NW through Sun
before dissipating. High pressure and return flow will prevail
across the basin through next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the Yucatan
Channel ahead of a surface trough that extends across the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, mostly quiet weather
prevails. Fresh trades are noted over the central Caribbean
between 66W-72W with moderate winds elsewhere.

Winds will pulse fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean,
expanding in coverage to the entire central Caribbean, and
offshore of Honduras and in the lee of Cuba by early next
week as high pressure N of the area build southward. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next
week. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical N Atlantic
by next week.

Conditions appear favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of
Hispaniola by late Sunday into Tuesday. An upper-level trough
will approach the region from the northwest Sunday, then linger in
the area into mid-week. While the strongest forcing and greatest
moisture content should remain just north of Hispaniola, portions
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic could see 1-3 inches of rain
per day, especially Monday and Tuesday, possibly leading to some
isolated flash flooding.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N79W to
28N80W. No significant convection is noted along the front. To
the east, a pre-frontal trough extends from 32N75W to 29N77W with
scattered moderate convection within 150 nm east of the trough.
Latest ASCAT pass depicts strong to near-gale SW winds north of
28N west of 75W. A 1019 mb high is over the central Atlantic near
25N62W. Further east, a surface trough extends over the central
Atlantic from 32N43W to 22N51W with scattered showers mainly north
27N.

The cold front will reach from 31N70W to the western Bahamas by Sat
morning, then stalling and dissipating from 27N65W to the central
Bahamas by early Sun. High pressure will build in from the NE in
the wake of the front with E to SE flow dominating through next
week. Expect pulses of fresh to strong winds N of Hispaniola
mainly at night starting Sun evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net