[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale: Meteo France is forecasting gale
force winds today, near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone
of Agadir. Gale force winds are likely occurring now and should
last until about 27/0000 UTC. Please see the Meteo France high
seas forecast at http://www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 00N29W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N-04N between 13W-21W. Cluster
of strong convection is present near the coast of Liberia.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm north and south of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from eastern Florida near 29N82W to 22N90W
to 21N91W and continues as a stationary front near the coast of
Mexico 19N93W. Scattered showers are over the eastern Gulf from
23N-86W east across South Florida. Latest radar imagery in FL
suggest most of the rainfall is not reaching the ground. Drier
conditions with moderate N winds are noted over the northern and
central portion of the Gulf as weak high pressure builds in behind
the front.

Thunderstorms in the E central and SE Gulf precede a cold front
which extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to just NW of the
Yucatan Peninsula. The front will extend from the Straits of
Florida to just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight where it
will stall and dissipate through Sat night. A remnant trough will
drift NW through Sun before dissipating. High pres and return flow
will prevail across the basin through next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is along the northern coast of
Colombia, associated to a 1009 mb low pressure. Isolated showers
are also noted near western Cuba and in the Yucatan Peninsula.
Elsewhere across the Caribbean, mostly quiet weather prevails.
Fresh trades are noted over the central Caribbean between 66W-72W
with moderate winds elsewhere.

Winds will pulse fresh to strong in the S central Caribbean,
expanding in coverage to the entire central Caribbean, and
offshore of Honduras and in the lee of Cuba by early next
week as high pres N of the area build southward. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate winds will prevail, increasing early next
week. Fresh easterly swell will build in the tropical N Atlc
next week.

Conditions appear favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of
Hispaniola late Sunday into Tuesday. An upper-level trough will
approach the region from the northwest Sunday, then linger in the
area into mid-week. While the strongest forcing and greatest
moisture content should remain just north of Hispaniola, portions
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic could see 1-3 inches of rain
per day, especially Monday and Tuesday, possibly leading to some
isolated flash flooding.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 29N
between 74W-78W. Latest ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale SW
winds north of 28N west of 76W, and these winds are moving
eastward. A 1019 mb high is over the western Atlantic near
29N62W. Further east, a surface trough extends over the central
Atlantic from 36N43W to 21N52W. Isolated showers are present 180nm
east of the trough. A 1030 mb high pressure remains in control of
most of the eastern Atlantic.

A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast tonight, reaching
from 31N70W to the western Bahamas Sat morning, then stalling and
dissipating from 27N65W to the central Bahamas by early Sun. High
pres will build in from the NE in the wake of the front with E to
SE flow dominating through next week. Expect pulses of fresh to
strong winds N of Hispaniola mainly at night starting Sun evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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