[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Far Eastern Atlantic Gale: Meteo France is forecasting gale
force winds today, Friday 26 April, near the coast of Morocco in
the marine zone of Agadir. Gale force winds are likely occurring
now and should last until about 27/0000 UTC. Please see the Meteo
France high seas forecast at http://www.meteofrance.com
/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 05N13W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to
2.5N24W to 01S32W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered
moderate with isolated strong convection is noted from 01N-06N
between 02W-10W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N
between 10W-30W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the ITCZ
between 30W-40W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 03S-
02N between 40W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 26/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the eastern Florida
Panhandle near 30N84W to 26N86W to 22N91.5W and continues as a
stationary front to the coast of Mexico near 18N95W. Scattered
moderate convection is over the eastern Gulf from 25N-27.5N
between 82W-86W, including near the Sarasota Florida area. The
convection is being enhanced by a mid-level trough and upper-level
divergence. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere within 60 nm
of the front in the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Drier conditions
with moderate N winds are noted over the northwestern Gulf as weak
high pressure builds in behind the front.

The front will stall in the SE Gulf by early Saturday, gradually
dissipating through Saturday night. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front and prevail through early next week, and
then shift to the east of the region through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated moderate convection is over N Colombia, mainly south of
9.5N. A small area of isolated showers and thunderstorms is near
Guadeloupe and just west of Guadeloupe. Isolated showers are also
noted near the southern coast of eastern Cuba and in the south-
central Caribbean from 11N-15N between 75W-78W. Elsewhere, mostly
quiet weather prevails. Fresh trades are noted over the central
Caribbean between 67W-76W with moderate winds elsewhere.

The winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south central
Caribbean Sea through this weekend. The coverage of these winds
will expand to include the entire central Caribbean Sea and the
northern coast of Honduras, by early next week, as the surface
pressure gradient tightens. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail this weekend, increasing early next week.

Conditions appear favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of
Hispaniola late Sunday into Tuesday. An upper-level trough will
approach the region from the northwest Sunday, then linger in the
area into mid-week. While the strongest forcing and greatest
moisture content should remain just north of Hispaniola, portions
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic could see 1-3 inches of rain
per day, especially Monday and Tuesday, possibly leading to some
isolated flash flooding.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are north of 24N
between 78W and the east coast of Florida. Latest ASCAT pass shows
strong to near gale SW winds north of 29N west of 77W, and these
winds are moving eastward. A 1020 mb high is over the western
Atlantic near 30N66W. Another 1021 mb high is near 25N62W. A
surface trough extends over the central Atlantic from 31N46W to
21N55W. A weak upper-level low is near 30N45W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are from 28N-32N between 35W-47W, and
from 21N-26N between 36W-43W.

A front will move off the NE Florida coast later this afternoon.
Strong to locally near gale force SW winds will continue north of
29N in advance of the front, with strong NW to N winds expected
behind the front briefly this evening and tonight north of 29N.
The front will move eastward, before stalling from near Bermuda to
south Florida from late Saturday into early Sunday. The front
will move northward as a warm front or a remnant trough through
late Sunday. Surface high pressure will build north of the area
early next week, allowing pulses of fresh to strong winds to the
north of Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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