[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters off the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from
06N17W to 01N29W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. No
significant convection is noted north of the Equator.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1020 mb located near 28N93W dominates the Gulf
region. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted over the eastern
Gulf where a recent scatterometer pass indicates the presence of
fresh W to NW winds, particularly N of 26N E of 87W. Light to
gentle winds are seen near the high pressure. This system will
become centered northeast of the area by the end of the weekend
into early next week allowing for return flow to dominate the
basin. The high will weaken by the end of next week as the next
cold front attempts to move into the western Gulf.

Diurnal surface trough will develop near the NW Yucatan Peninsula
during the evening hours and drift westward across the SW Gulf
where it will eventually dissipate during the morning hours.
Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will accompany this trough
each night into the early morning hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 0300 UTC, a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to
near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. Mainly low clouds with
some shower activity are associated with the frontal boundary,
forecast to dissipate today. Patches of low level moisture
embedded in the trade winds flow are noted elsewhere across the
basin. Mainly moderate northerly winds follows the front. Moderate
to fresh trade winds are noted per scatterometer data over the
eastern and the south-central Caribbean, and also across the
waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds
will prevail across the Caribbean and the Tropical North
Atlantic, with the exception of fresh to strong winds near the
coast of Colombia. Trades will slowly diminish through Wednesday
night, then increasing back slightly towards the end of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N73W then continues
SW across the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. A band of showers
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms is related to the front.
Most of the convective activity is currently affecting the central
Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed W of the front, and runs
from 29N78W to near Havana, Cuba. Some cloudiness with isolated
showers is noted near the trough axis. The front will reach from
near 31N71W to the SE Bahamas this afternoon where it will stall
and gradually dissipate. The remnants of the front will linger
along 70W through much of the upcoming week.

Farther east, another cold front enters the forecast waters near
31N36W and stretches southwest, then west along 23N40W to 21N50W
to 22N60W. This front is associated with a 1018 mb low pressure
system located near 32N41W. Some shower and thunderstorm activity
is noted mainly on the west side of the low center. A reinforcing
trough behind the cold front extends from the low to 27N41W to
24N45W to 25N55W. This low is producing gale force winds just N of
the forecast area, and fresh to strong northerly winds over the
forecast waters N of 27N between 42W and 48W based on recent
scatterometer data. The low pressure is forecast to move SW into
the discussion area, and is forecast to meander near 26N50W over
the next 48-72 hours. The associated cold front will dissipate
over the next 24 hours. The pressure gradient between the low and
high pressure to the north will keep an area of fresh to strong
winds roughly N of 26N between 40W and 60W today and Mon. A ridge
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
GR
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