[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202342
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
742 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2319 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters off the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from
05N18W to 01N29W to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-07N
between 26W to 39W. Isolated convection is also seen approximately
200 nautical miles south of the monsoon trough east of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough moving south across the eastern Gulf and central Florida
enters the waters near Fort Myers, Florida and extends into the
central Gulf near 24N87W. Some isolated showers are moving east-
southeast in the northeast Gulf and approaching the west coast of
Florida. Otherwise, benign conditions prevail as a 1022 mb high
pressure is centered near 24N95W and is ridging across most of the
basin. Light to gentle winds are seen near the high pressure,
with moderate to fresh west-northwest winds are in the eastern
Gulf.

The reinforcing frontal trough will shift east of the basin
tonight while high pressure across the western Gulf spreads
eastward. The high pressure will become centered northeast of the
area by the end of the weekend into early next week allowing for
return flow to dominate the basin. The high will weaken by the end
of next week as the next cold front attempts to move into the
western Gulf.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front moving across central Cuba enters the Caribbean near
22N80W and stretches southwest to near 20N82W. From 20N82W, the
boundary stalls and extends to northern Honduras near 16N86W.
Showers can be seen within 70 nm of the boundary in the northwest
Caribbean. Another set of showers are moving across the north-
central Caribbean in addition to Jamaica and the eastern half of
Cuba. Showers are also moving across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola,
and low-topped showers are also moving across the Lesser Antilles.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be seen west of the front,
while fresh to moderate trades prevail across the central and
south Caribbean, particularly north of Colombia.

The stationary front over the northwest Caribbean will dissipate
on Sunday. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the
Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic, with the exception of
strong breeze NE winds north of Colombia. Trades will slowly
diminish through Wednesday night, then increasing back slightly
towards the end of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front continues to move east across the western Atlantic
from 31N74W to central Cuba near 23N79W. A cluster of showers and
thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the front extending south to
the central Bahamas. A trough is also moving across the western
Atlantic right off the Florida coast from 30N79W to near 28N81W.
There are showers moving along and 60 nm ahead of the trough.
Farther east, another cold front enters the waters near 31N36W and
stretches southwest to near 22N47W. From 22N47W, the front stalls
and extends westward to near 22N62W. A reinforcing trough behind
the cold front extends from near 31N39W to 26N55W. A cluster of
showers and thunderstorms are seen within the vicinity of both the
trough and cold front. A line of light showers is also seen
moving along the trough and the rest of the cold front. Near the
stationary front, slightly more organized area of showers is seen.
Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

Strong to near gale force southerly winds ahead of the front
northeast of the Bahamas will weaken through tonight. The front
will reach from near 31N71W to the southeast Bahamas on Sunday
afternoon where it will stall and gradually dissipate. The
remnants of the front will linger along 70W through much of the
upcoming week. NE swell will move into the waters north of the
Virgin Islands through early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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