[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W
to 02N12W. The ITCZ continues from 02N12W to 01S29W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is 180 nm
southeast of the monsoon trough. Scattered showers extend out 180
to 200 nm north and south of the ITCZ near the coast of Brazil
west of 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the Florida Peninsula and enters the
waters from 25N81W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N86W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving along and ahead of
the front, extending 80 nm east of the frontal boundary. Otherwise,
high pressure remains dominant over the western Gulf with a 1018
mb high anchored near 27N94W. Gentle southerly winds remain ahead
of the front, with northerly winds between gentle and moderate,
with fresh winds near the western Florida Panhandle. Gentle winds
are in the western Gulf near the high. Dense smoke is over the
Yucatan Peninsula and the far east Bay of Campeche. Medium to
light smoke is over the remainder of the Gulf west of 85W.

A cold front extending from south Florida to near Cancun, Mexico
will weaken as it exits the SE Gulf this afternoon. High pressure
building across the area in the wake of the front will shift
eastward Wed through Thu in response to another cold front that
will move over the NW Gulf early on Thu, reaching from SE
Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche Thu night and from the
Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Fri. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers are moving northward from Honduras and Nicaragua. In
addition to showers moving off of the Yucatan and Belize into the
basin. Otherwise, low-topped showers are seen moving across the
Greater Antilles, particularly in east-central Cuba and over
Hispaniola. Low-topped showers are also moving across the Lesser
Antilles. The trades in the eastern half of the Caribbean are
moderate to fresh with strong winds north of Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trades are also seen in the western Caribbean.

High pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Highest
winds will be near the coast of Colombia at night with building
seas to 9 or 10 ft.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N75W to the coast of Florida near
26N80W. Scattered showers are present 60 nm southeast of the front
and north of 27N to 31N. There is also some showers moving off
the south Florida coast into the Atlantic nearing the northern
Bahamas. Farther east, another cold front enters the waters near
30N11W and stretches southwest to near 23N30W to 22N39W. Behind
the front, moderate to fresh northeast winds can be seen with a
1027 mb high pressure centered near 30N45W. Otherwise the rest of
the basin has easterly gentle to moderate winds.

A cold front extends from 31N69W to south Florida. Fresh to strong
winds are noted ahead and behind the front. It is forecast to reach
from near 31N69W to the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida
tonight, and from 29N65W to the Central Bahamas on Tue. Then, the
front is forecast to weaken and become stationary from 27N65W to
the NW Bahamas on Wed. High pressure in the wake of the front will
shift slowly eastward across the area Wed through Fri. Winds and
seas will increase over much of the NW waters Fri ahead of a cold
front in the Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions are possible ahead of
the front by Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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