[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W
to 02N12W. The ITCZ continues from 02N12W to 01S25W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
ITCZ near the coast of Brazil from 01N-06S between 26W-40W.
Isolated moderate convection is also beginning to move off the
coast of Cote d'Ivoire near the monsoon trough east of 10W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front enters the waters from St. Petersburg,
Florida near 28N783W to near 26N84W. From 26N84W, the front stalls
to the northern Yucatan near 22N88W. A pre-frontal trough extends
north of the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico, from 22N86W to
24N84W. Showers are moving along and ahead of the front, within 90
nm from the southwest coast of Florida to the northeast Yucatan.
Otherwise, high pressure remains dominant over the western Gulf
with a 1018 mb high anchored near 28N94W. Gentle southerly winds
remain ahead of the front, with northerly winds between gentle and
moderate, with fresh winds near the western Florida Panhandle.
Gentle winds are in the western Gulf near the high. Dense smoke is
over the Yucatan Peninsula and the far east Bay of Campeche.
Medium to light smoke is over the remainder of the Gulf west of
83W.

The cold front will weaken as it exits the southeast Gulf this
afternoon. High pressure will shift slowly eastward across the
area Tuesday through Thursday. A cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf on early Thursday, reach from southeast Louisiana
to the central Bay of Campeche by Thursday night and from Big
Bend of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers are moving northward from Honduras and Nicaragua into the
western Caribbean in addition to showers moving off of the
Yucatan and Belize into the basin. Otherwise, low-topped showers
are seen moving across the Greater Antilles, particularly in
east-central Cuba and over Hispaniola. Low-topped showers are
also moving across the Lesser Antilles. The trades in the eastern
half of the Caribbean are moderate to fresh with strong winds
north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are also seen in the
western Caribbean.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to locally
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Friday night.
Highest winds will be near the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

While most of the organized showers and thunderstorms have moved
north of the forecast waters, showers continue to move away from
the northeast Florida coast west of 75W as the cold front begins
to approach the coast. There is also some showers moving off the
south Florida coast into the Atlantic nearing the northern
Bahamas. Farther east, another cold front enters the waters near
30N17W and stretches southwest to near 23N44W. From 23N44W, the
tail-end of the boundary stalls to near 24N55W. A pre-frontal
trough is moving through the Canary Islands from 31N13W to 26N21W.
Showers are seen within 50 nm of the frontal boundary. Behind the
front, moderate to fresh northerly winds can be seen. Otherwise
the rest of the basin has easterly gentle to moderate winds.
Ridging continues across the area anchored by a 1026 mb high near
31N50W.

A cold front moving off the southeast U.S. coast is preceded by
fresh to strong southerly winds. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Tuesday, then weaken and
become stationary from 27N65W to the northern Bahamas on Wednesday.
High pressure will shift slowly eastward across the area Wednesday
through Friday. Winds and seas will increase over much of the
northwest waters Friday ahead of a cold front in the Gulf of
Mexico.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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