[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W
to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to the coast of Brazil
near 03S41W. A large cluster of moderate convection is noted in
the vicinity of the monsoon trough mainly east of 14W, while
scattered showers are noted within 150 nm on either side of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A pre-frontal trough extends across the NW Gulf from 29N94W to
25N97W with scattered showers. A cold front is currently along the
coastline of Texas. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail
over the basin. Weak surface ridge prevails across the eastern
Gulf, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered over the west Atlantic.

High pressure will slide eastward through Saturday as a deep low
pressure system and strong cold front enters the NW Gulf. The
cold front will reach from Apalachicola FL to near 25N88W and the
eastern Bay of Campeche by Sunday night. Strong southeast winds
and building seas will develop ahead of the front today through
Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of
the front. The front will be followed by strong northerly winds
across much of the Gulf, with minimal gale conditions possible in
the far SW Gulf near Veracruz on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows dry air over the NW Caribbean mainly west
of 80W. Scattered showers are observed near Jamaica and eastern
Cuba north of 17N between 74W-79W. Scattered showers are also noted
over the Greater Antilles, transported by the moderate to fresh
trades across the region.

Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop over the far western
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras on Friday and continue into
Saturday afternoon, then be mainly confined to the Gulf of
Honduras through Sunday night. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will develop over the south-central Caribbean and near the
coast of Colombia through the weekend, while expanding northward
in coverage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N53W to 29N66W to 31N76W. A surface
trough is over the W Atlantic from 28N62W to 23N69W to 21N76W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm on either sides of the front/trough.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin,
anchored by a 1024 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near
27N36W.

The cold front will become stationary early Saturday as strong
high pressure builds southward over the central Atlantic. The
front will weaken to a trough and drift NNW by Saturday night as
the high shifts east of area. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds E of 75W will spread southward to near 27N tonight, becoming
fresh east to southeast winds on Sat as a cold front approaches
the far northwest waters. This front will move across the
northwest and central waters on Monday, preceded by fresh to
strong south to southwest winds over the waters north and
northeast of the Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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