[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120509
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 00N26W to the
coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted south of the monsoon trough along the coast
of Africa and adjacent waters mainly east 15W. Scattered showers
prevail along and south of the ITCZ mainly west of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A pre-frontal trough is along the coast of Texas from near Corpus
Christi at 29N96W to NE Mexico at 26N97W. Radar imagery shows
scattered showers along the trough affecting the northwest Gulf
waters. A cold front is further inland over S Texas. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds prevail over the basin. Weak surface
ridge prevails across the eastern Gulf, anchored by a 1027 mb high
centered over the west Atlantic.

High pressure will slide eastward through Saturday as a low
pressure system and its associated cold front moves across Texas.
The low will track northeastward through Sunday, with the cold
front moving off the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts by
Saturday night, reaching from southeastern Louisiana to near
24N93W and to near Veracruz by early Sunday and from Apalachicola
to near 25N88W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Sunday
night. Strong southeast winds along with building seas will
develop across the Gulf ahead of the front from Friday through
the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
ahead of the front. The front will be followed by strong northerly
winds across much of the Gulf, with minimal gale force winds
possible in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz on Sunday. Winds will
begin to diminish over the NW Gulf Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite imagery shows dry air over the NW Caribbean mainly west
of 79W. Scattered showers are observed near Jamaica and eastern
Cuba north of 17N between 74W-79W. Scattered showers are noted
over the Greater Antilles, transported with the moderate to fresh
trades across the region.

Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop over the far western
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras on Friday and continue into
Saturday afternoon, then be mainly confined to the Gulf of
Honduras through Sunday night. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will develop over the south-central Caribbean and near the
coast of Colombia through the weekend, while expanding northward
in coverage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N56W to 29N68W, then becomes
stationary to 31N76W. A surface trough is over the W Atlantic
from 29N65W to 23N70W to Hispaniola near 20N71W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm on either sides of the trough. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N36W.

The cold front over the western Atlantic will move southeastward
tonight, then become stationary as strong high pressure builds
southward over the northeast waters. The stationary front will
weaken to a trough on Friday and move northwestward to north of
31N Saturday night while weakening, while the high pressure
shifts east-southeastward and weakens. Moderate to fresh winds
will prevail across the W Atlantic through Sunday as a cold front
approaches from the west. This front will move across the
northwest and central sections Monday and over the northeast
waters by Tuesday. It will be preceded by fresh to strong south
to southwest winds over the waters north and northeast of the
Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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