[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110530
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning...

Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the
coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through Thursday,
according to the Meteo-France forecast. For more details, refer to
the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W
to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm
on either sides of the boundaries mainly west of 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary extends across the Florida Peninsula. It was
analyzed as a cold front from 30N81W to 31N86W, then becomes
stationary over southern Alabama. Surface ridging is building
across the basin, anchored by a 1010 mb high centered near
23N91W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly
winds across the western half of the basin, while light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail over the eastern half.

Expect fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf
to continue through Thursday between the high pressure and a
trough over the southern Plains. These winds will diminish through
Friday as the high pressure shifts east, but increase again
Saturday ahead of the next front that is expected to move off the
Texas coast late Saturday into early Sunday. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front Sunday,
reaching near gale-force off Veracruz by late Sunday. Winds and
seas will diminish across the Gulf on Monday as the front stalls
and weakens from the Florida Keys to the northwest Yucatan.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb surface low is centered near 18N84W. A surface trough
extends from the low to 22N78W then continues across the west
Atlantic. Scattered showers prevail along and within 75 nm on
either sides of the trough. To the east, low-topped showers are
quickly moving across the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate trades are noted across
the eastern half of the basin, with locally fresh winds prevailing
within 90 nm north of the coast of Colombia. Light to gentle
variable winds prevail over the western half of the basin.

The weak ridge to the north of the basin will continue to promote
moderate to fresh breeze tradewinds across the Caribbean through
Friday. As the ridge strengthens and increases the pressure
gradient, winds will increase in speed especially north of
Colombia and north of Honduras through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the far east Atlantic waters.

A cold front extends from the northern Florida coast near 30N81W
to 32N74W with scattered showers. A 1008 mb surface low is located
near 27N79W, with surface trough extending across central Florida.
To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N72W to 22N78W.
Scattered to numerous showers prevail along and within 75 nm on
either sides of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near
27N36W.

The cold front over the west Atlantic will shift southeastward
through Thursday and extend along 27N by early Friday followed by
fresh to strong winds and building seas. Winds and seas will
diminish by late Friday as the front shifts east. On Friday, the
trough north of Hispaniola will dissipate through late Saturday as
it drifts northwestward off the Bahamas. Wind speeds will
increase off the northeast Florida coast by late Sunday ahead of
the next cold front expected to move off the coast early Monday
and reach from roughly 31N70W to southeast Florida by Monday
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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