[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning...

Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the
coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir through Thursday,
according to the Meteo-France forecast. For more details, refer to
the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W
to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 04N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
100 nm to the north of the ITCZ from 00N-03S between 28W-30W and
180 nm to the south of the ITCZ from 03S-08S between 18W-28W.
Elsewhere along both boundaries, scattered showers are present.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow moving dissipating frontal boundary extends off the
southwest coast of Florida near 25N81W to the Caribbean. Some
showers associated with the front and digging mid-level trough
are exiting the Gulf with a 1013 mb high pressure taking control
of the area. Benign conditions prevail across the rest of the
basin as a 1013 mb high is right off the northwest Yucatan near
24N88W. Winds are generally light to gentle out of the north-
northwest.

High pressure is centered over the south central Gulf in the wake
of a cold front that moved through the region this morning.
Expect fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf
through Thu between the high pressure and a trough over the
southern Plains. These winds will diminish through Fri as the high
pressure shifts east, but increase again Sat ahead of another
front expected to move off the Texas coast late Sat into early
Sun. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow
the front Sun, reaching near gale force off Veracruz late Sun.
Winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Mon as the front
stalls and weakens from the Florida Keys to the northwest Yucatan.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A slow moving dissipating frontal boundary extending across the
southeast Gulf of Mexico stretches across the northwest Caribbean
to just off the coast of Belize. Ahead of the front, numerous
showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen moving across central
Cuba and the west-central Caribbean and beginning to approach
Jamaica. A pre-frontal trough is also seen ahead of the front from
22N81W to 17N84W. To the east, low-topped showers are quickly
moving across the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican
Republic. Gentle to moderate trades are seen across most of the
Caribbean, with light trades in the southwest portion of the
basin. Ahead of the incoming front, winds are gentle out the
south-southeast. Behind the front, winds are mostly gentle out of
the northwest.

A weakening cold front from western Cuba to central Honduras will
dissipate through tonight. A weak ridge to the north will promote
only moderate to fresh breeze tradewinds across the Caribbean
through Fri. As the ridge strengthens and increases the pressure
gradient, winds - especially north of Colombia and north of
Honduras - will be enhanced on Sat through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the far east Atlantic waters.

A dissipating front continues to push east off the Florida coast.
A 1008 mb low located near 32N77W has a cold front extending
southwest across the Florida Peninsula into the western Caribbean.
Mix of low and mid level clouds are spread across the western
Atlantic into the Bahamas and western Cuba along a trough 100 nm
ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous showers and embedded
thunderstorms are moving north off of Cuba into the Bahamas ahead
of the front from 22N-31N between 71W-79W. Surface riding prevails
across the remainder of the basin with a 1023 mb high located
near 27N32W.

A weaken cold front from 1008 mb low pressure near 32N77W to
southeast Florida will move east and dissipate tonight. Fresh to
strong NE winds will follow second front currently north of the
region that will drift south and extend along roughly 29N Fri
before dissipating into Sat. A weak trough north of Hispaniola
will dissipate through late Sat as it drifts northeast off the
Bahamas. S winds will increase off northeast Florida late Sun
ahead of another cold front expected to move off the coast early
Mon and reach from roughly 31N70W to southeast Florida by Mon
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MMTorres
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