[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101035
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning...

Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the
coast of Morocco in the marine zone of Agadir today, according to
the Meteo-France forecast. For more details, refer to the Meteo
France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to the coast of Brazil
near 00N38W. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm on either
side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 26N82W to 21N86W, then across the
northwest Caribbean. Abundant cloudiness with scattered showers
are noted along and east of the front affecting South Florida,
Straits, and the Yucatan Channel. Surface ridging prevails over
the remainder of the basin in the wake of the front, anchored by a
1015 mb surface high centered near 25N92W. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds west of the front,
while moderate to fresh winds are noted in the vicinity of the
front.

The cold front will drift southeast while weakening today. High
pressure behind the front will continue building with southerly
return flow in the western Gulf increasing through early Thursday.
The next cold front will move into the Texas coastal waters early
Thursday, stalling and pushing back inland through the day as the
high restrengthens. Another cold front will move into the western
Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has entered the northwest Caribbean, extending from
22N85W to 18N88W. A pre-frontal trough extends across the
northwest Caribbean from 22N81W to 16N88W. Scattered moderate
convection is along and within 180 nm southeast of the trough.
Further east, low-topped showers are moving quickly with the
trades across the Greater Antilles and the Leeward Islands.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted north of the trough mainly
west of 85W and over to south-central Caribbean. Light to gentle
trades prevail across the remainder of the basin.

The cold front will reach from central Cuba to eastern Honduras
this afternoon where it will stall and weaken before dissipating
tonight. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the south-central
Caribbean early on Friday, as a ridge builds in the northwest
Atlantic. The slight increase in the pressure gradient will also
support fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras Friday
night, continuing through the remainder of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the far east Atlantic waters.

A cold front is exiting the southeast U.S. coast, enhancing
convection across the west Atlantic waters west of 70W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southwesterly winds
over this area. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high is centered near 30N30W.

The cold front will continue moving off the northeast Florida
coast this morning, reaching from Bermuda to the central Bahamas
early on Thursday. The front will weaken and exit the area Friday
evening. A low will continue to develop east of Georgia this
afternoon extending a trough into the west Atlantic waters. The
low will move north of Freeport early on Thursday before
dissipating during the afternoon hours. High pressure will
rebuild across the basin through Saturday night, weakening by
late Sunday as the next cold front approaches from the northwest.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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