[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning...

Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the
coast of Morocco in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya on
Wednesday, according to the Meteo-France forecast. Winds will
begin increasing today, reaching near-gale force overnight. For
more details, refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed
on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W
to 02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to the coast of Brazil
near 04S38W. Scattered showers are noted extend 150 nm on either
side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends off the Florida Peninsula from Saint
Petersburg near 27N82W to 25N84W. he front then becomes stationary
from that point to 21N88W then across the Yucatan Peninsula.
Abundant cloudiness with scattered showers are noted along and
east of the front. Ahead of the front, a pre-frontal trough
extends from the northern Bahamas, across the Straits of Florida
to west-central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
the trough. Surface ridging prevails over the remainder of the
basin in the wake of the front, anchored by a 1013 mb surface high
centered near 23N92W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds west of the front, while moderate to
fresh southwesterly winds are noted southeast of the front.

The cold front will drift southeast while weakening today. High
pressure behind the front will continue building with southerly
return flow in the western Gulf increasing through early Thursday.
The next cold front will move into the Texas coastal waters early
Thursday, stalling and pushing back inland through the day as the
high restrengthens. Another cold front will move into the western
Gulf this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A pre-frontal trough extends across the northwest Caribbean from
22N81W to 18N86W. Scattered moderate convection is along the
trough. Another area of scattered moderate convection has
developed over Honduras and is moving west along 15N and west of
83W. Further east, low-topped showers are moving quickly with the
trades across the Greater Antilles and the Leeward Islands.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted north of the trough mainly
west of 85W and over to south-central Caribbean. Light to gentle
trades prevail across the remainder of the basin.

High pressure north of the area will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through
tonight. A cold front will reach the northwest Caribbean later
tonight, and extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by
Wednesday morning, before dissipating. Fresh to strong winds will
resume in the south central Caribbean on Friday evening, as a
ridge builds in the west Atlantic. The slight increase in the
pressure gradient will also support fresh to strong trade winds in
the Gulf of Honduras Friday night, continuing through the
remainder of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the far east Atlantic waters.

A cold front is exiting the southeast U.S. coast, enhancing
convection across the west Atlantic waters west of 73W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southwesterly winds
over this area. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high is centered near 27N32W.

High pressure ridging will weaken tonight as the cold front
enters the basin. The front will move off the NE Florida coast by
this morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida early Thursday. The front will stall and weaken through
the day while a reinforcing front or trough drops south of 31N.
The reinforcing boundary will stall along 28N/29N through the end
of the week, dissipating by early Saturday. High pressure will
rebuild across the basin through Saturday night, weakening by
late Sunday as the next cold front approaches from the northwest.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net