[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090955
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
555 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning...

Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the
coast of Morocco in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya on
Wednesday, according to the Meteo France forecast. Winds will
begin increasing today, reaching near gale by this evening. For
more details, refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed
on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 00N21W. The ITCZ continues from 00N21W to the coast of
Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is along and in
the vicinity of both boundaries mainly south of 02N. The
strongest activity is noted east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N87W to 24N90W to 18N92W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along and east of the front. High
pressure is building behind the front, centered near 24N96W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds within 160 nm
on either sides of the front, while light to gentle variable winds
prevail over the majority of the area. Moderate winds are noted
over the Florida Straits.

The cold front extending will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida
to the Yucatan Peninsula by this afternoon, then exit the SE gulf
by tonight. High pressure will build over the western half of the
basin early on Wednesday and shift to the NE gulf early on
Thursday before dissipating ahead of the next cold front to come
off the coast of Texas on Thursday morning. Fresh to strong
return flow will develop over the western Gulf on Wednesday night
through Thursday morning. The front is expected to lift back over
Texas Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the basin will support fresh to strong
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through tonight. A
cold front will reach the NW Caribbean tonight, and extend from
western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Wednesday morning before
dissipating. Fresh to strong winds will resume in the south-
central Caribbean by the end of the week as a ridge builds in the
northwest Atlantic. Fresh to strong trades are expected to develop
over the Gulf of Honduras by Friday and continuing through the
weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging prevails across the area anchored by 3 surface
highs. A 1020 mb high is centered near 29N66W, the next one is a
1022 mb high centered near 27N46W. The third one is a 1022 mb
high centered near 28N24W.

Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning over the
far E Atlantic off the coast of Morocco. The ridge will shift E
ahead of a low pressure tracking eastward from Mississippi to the
SE U.S. by tonight. A cold front associated with this low will
reach the NW forecast waters early on Wednesday. The cold front
will extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits by Wednesday
afternoon, and from 31N65W to the southern Bahamas on Thursday
afternoon. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected over the north
waters ahead of the front, reaching near gale force N of 30N on
Wednesday evening. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms
associated with the front will affect the region through the end
of the week. High pressure will build across the region once again
by Thursday and prevail through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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