[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning...

Gale force winds out of the north-northeast are expected off the
coast of Morocco in the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya on
Wednesday, according to the Meteo France forecast. Winds will
begin increasing on Tuesday, reaching near gale by that evening.
For more details, refer to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from 00N22W to the coast of
Brazil near 02S43W. Numerous moderate convection is along and
in the vicinity of both boundaries mainly south of 02N. The
strongest activity is noted east of 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N89W to 26N90W to 18N94W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along and east of the front mainly
north of 25N. High pressure is building behind the front, centered
near 26N96W. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong westerly
winds north of 27N, while variable moderate winds prevail
elsewhere.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf in advance
of the cold front. Thunderstorms will also continue along with
the cold front in the south-central Gulf through Tuesday. The cold
front will reach from the W coast of Florida near 29N83W to the
Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday afternoon. The front will then move
across the SE Gulf through late Tuesday, exiting the area by
Tuesday night. High pressure over the northwest Gulf will shift
to the eastern Gulf by Thu as the next cold front approaches the
Texas coast. Fresh to strong return flow will develop over the
western Gulf Wednesday night and Thursday. This front is expected
to become stationary near the Texas coast Thu through Friday
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trough of low pressure over Central America is producing
scattered moderate convection over Guatemala, Belize, the southern
Yucatan Peninsula and the western Gulf of Honduras west of 86W.
Elsewhere, scattered showers are seen near and over portions of
the Greater Antilles. Recent TPW imagery indicates an increase in
moisture over the western Caribbean. Expect coverage of showers
and thunderstorms to increase in this area by late Tuesday as the
remnants of the cold front enters the northwest Caribbean.

Fresh trades are currently observed over much of the Caribbean,
with strong to near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia.
High pressure N of the region will continue to support fresh to
strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean tonight
through Tue night. Afterward, mainly moderate to fresh trades will
prevail through Friday night. Fresh to strong winds are expected
over the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then winds will increase again
to a fresh to strong breeze Thursday night through Saturday
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A squall line is moving eastward off the coast of northeast
Florida along 81W. These feature is weakening quickly as it moves
over water. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the
area anchored by 3 surface highs. A 1021 mb high is centered near
28N72W, the next one is a 1023 mb high centered near 27N45W. The
third one is a 1023 mb high centered near 29N24W. A pair weak
troughs are producing isolated showers over the central Atlantic
north of 20N between 30W-40W and 45W-50W.

Refer to the section above for details on a Gale Warning over the
far E Atlantic off the coast of Morocco. The ridge will shift E
ahead of low pressure tracking eastward from Louisiana to the SE
U.S. by Tuesday night. Its associated cold front will reach the
NW part of the forecast waters by early Wednesday. The cold front
will extend from 31N77W to SE Florida by Wednesday morning, from
31N70W to the NW Bahamas by Wednesday night, and from 31N66W to
the NW Bahamas on Thursday. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected
over the north waters ahead of the front, reaching near gale
force winds N of 30N on Wednesday. The front will be preceded by
scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build
across the northern waters in the wake of the front by the end of
the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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