[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Apr 7 11:58:03 CDT 2019


AXNT20 KNHC 071657
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 PM EDT Sun Apr 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1619 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Current radar and satellite imagery indicate a strong squall line
moving off the middle Texas coast into the northwestern Gulf.
Winds along the squall line are being reported out of the north
upwards of sustained 35 kts with higher gusts, at or near gale
force. In fact, Port Isabel, TX reported 49 kt gusts around 1456
UTC. Visibility is down to 2 1/2 sm. This squall line is quickly
moving east- southeast near 30 kt.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 01N12W to 01S19W. The ITCZ continues from 01S19W to 01S27W to
the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 04N-04S between 14W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite shows showers with embedded thunderstorms east of the
squall line in the northwest Gulf. Otherwise, showers with
scattered clouds are seen across the northern Gulf and into the
Bay of Campeche. There are also isolated showers in the southeast
Gulf. Clouds and showers are moving into the Florida Panhandle.
Winds in most of the basin are generally gentle to moderate out of
the south-southeast. A mid-level trough is beginning to dig out
of the southern Plains and into the Gulf.

Strong E to SE winds will continue today ahead of a weak cold
front entering northwest Gulf tonight. The front will reach from
Mobile to 25N92W to the central Bay of Campeche by Monday
evening, then from the Florida Big Bend to near 25N88W and to
western Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche by Tuesday
afternoon. The front will weaken to a trough as it exits the
southeast Gulf on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some strong to possibly severe, will move from west to east ahead
of the cold front across the northern and central Gulf waters
through Monday. High pressure following the front will shift east
over the eastern Gulf by Thursday as a weak cold front approaches
the northwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are moving across the Lower Antilles, Puerto
Rico and most of the Dominican Republic. Light showers are also
seen moving along the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and
Panama. Moderate to fresh trades are seen across most of the
basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the north and western
Caribbean. Upper level ridging is over the entire Caribbean Sea
with strong subsidence which is inhibiting convection.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tuesday,
reaching near gale force off the coast of Colombia tonight and
Monday night. This pattern will also support pulsing fresh to
strong winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras through early Monday
night. Residual long period NE swell will affect the waters east
of the Windward Islands until tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 30N64W to 23N72W. Showers are
within 100 nm to the east of this feature. Otherwise, some showers
and embedded thunderstorms are moving south-southeast in the
western Atlantic about 230 nm off the northeast coast of Florida.
A frontal boundary to the north of the waters along with a mid-
level disturbance sliding to the east is inducing showers from
31N-26N between 37W-43W. A 1025 mb high is centered near 28N28W
which is ridging across the central and eastern Atlantic.

High pressure over the area will change little through Tuesday
night. Low pressure will track northeast from the southern U.S.
late on Tuesday and drag a cold front across the northwest part
of the area Wednesday morning. The cold front will reach from
near 31N77W to Vero Beach early Wednesday, weaken into a trough
and stretch from near 31N73W to 28N77W to the northwest Bahamas
and Miami Wednesday evening. The trough will be weakening and
become nearly stationary from near 30N66W to 27N72W to the
northwest Bahamas on Thursday. High pressure will build southeast
across the northeast part of the forecast waters late Wednesday
through Thursday night as another weak trough moves from east to
west across the waters between the southeast Bahamas and
Hispaniola.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
AKR
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