[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from N Liberia near 06N10W to 01N20W
to 00N23W. The ITCZ continues from 00N23W to 00N30W to Brazil
near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-03S
between 14W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-04S
between 36W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the NW Gulf of Mexico.
10-25 kt SE return flow is over the entire Gulf with lightest
winds over the NE Gulf, and  strongest winds along the Yucatan
Peninsula. Satellite imagery shows low stratus or fog along
coastal areas from Tampico Mexico to St. Marks Florida. More fog
is over the NW Gulf N of 26N and W of 90W. Broken upper level
clouds are over the W Gulf W of 93W.

High pressure ridging and moderate to fresh return flow will
prevail across the basin through this evening, except in the
sections of the southcentral and southwest Gulf, where strong
east to southeast winds will continue through early Mon. A weak
cold front will move across the NW Gulf tonight preceded by a
trough in the early evening. The front is expected to reach from
Mobile to 25N92W to the central Bay of Campeche Mon evening, then
extend from the Florida Big Bend to 25N88W to the western Yucatan
Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue afternoon. The front
will weaken to a trough as it exits the southeastern Gulf on Wed.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some strong to possibly
severe, will move from W to E ahead of the front across the
northern and central Gulf waters through Mon. High pressure in the
wake of the front will shift east to the eastern Gulf by Thu as
another cold front approaches the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola. Similar scattered showers are over the SW Caribbean
along the coasts of S Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and W Panama. Upper
level ridging is over the entire Caribbean Sea with strong
subsidence.

High pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the south-central Caribbean through Tue, reaching
near gale force off Colombia tonight and Mon night. This pattern
will also support pulsing fresh to strong winds at night in the
Gulf of Honduras through early Mon night.  Decaying long-period
northeast propagate through the waters east of the Windward
Islands will last through early this afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to
29N73W to beyond 31N77W. Scattered moderate convection is over the
W Atlantic from 30N-32N between 78W-80W. A 1029 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 37N45W. High pressure
ridging dominates the central and eastern Atlantic.

The W Atlantic front will fully dissipate by this morning. High
pressure will then follow across the W Atlantic through Tue
night. A surface low and associated cold front will enter the NW
waters on Wed morning. The cold front will reach from 31N77W to
Vero Beach early Wed, and extend from near 31N73W to the NW
Bahamas and Miami by Wed evening. The front will transition to a
trough from 30N66W to the NW Bahamas Thu. High pressure will build
southeastward across the W Atlantic Thu night. A weak trough will
move W between the SE Bahamas and Hispaniola.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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