[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Sat Apr 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 02S30W to the coast
of South America near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is from 03N-05S between 00W-03W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 00N-03N between 16W-20W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 02N-07S between 24W-34W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-02S between 39W-46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and
the Florida Panhandle N of 29N between 84W-88W. This convection is
due to stationary front N of the Gulf, and due to some upper level
diffluence. Satellite imagery shows low stratus clouds or fog
along the Texas and Louisiana coasts. 5-15 kt southerly surface
winds are over the entire Gulf. Upper level cloudiness is over the
Gulf, except over the SE Gulf and S Florida where strong
subsidence prevails.

High pressure extends from east central Florida across the
northeast Gulf. Moist SE breezes south of the ridge will support
areas of fog over the northern Gulf into early Sun. The SE flow
will increase over the western Gulf Sat as the high pressure
builds over the western Atlantic. A cold front will move off the
Texas coast Mon, then will move across the basin through early
next week, before stalling and dissipating over the Straits of
Florida through late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large area of rain and showers are over the Windward Islands.
Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica. Similar scattered showers are
over the SW Caribbean along the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica,
and W Panama. Scattered moderate convection is inland over SW
Colombia. In the upper levels, a very sharp upper level trough is
over the W Caribbean with trough axis along 83W. An upper level
ridge is over the E Caribbean with subsidence.

High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong
trade winds across the southeast and south central Caribbean
through early next week, reaching near gale force off Colombia
mainly at night. The pattern will also support fresh to strong
winds through the Gulf of Honduras into early next week. Fresh NE
swell will impact the waters east of the Leeward Islands through
early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic from 28N-31N
between 74W-80W. Further E, a surface trough is over the W
Atlantic from 31N60W to 26N71W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the trough. Additional showers are over the Bahamas. A large
1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N33W.

The W Atlantic surface trough will diminishing overnight as the
trough lifts north of the area. Weak ridging will build in the
wake of the trough north of 27N into early next week. The ridge
will move east Mon ahead of a cold front moving off the southeast
coast of United States by late Tue into early Wed.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net