[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 PM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 08N13W
to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 0N21W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S39W. Heavy showers and tstms are N of 05S
between 05E to 03W and from 07S to 03N between 17W and 33W.
Scattered showers and tstms are from 03S to 05N between 36W and
46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Heavy showers and tstms will prevail in the NE gulf through early
Sat morning being supported by a middle to upper level trough and
a frontal boundary currently N of the area. Surface high pressure
dominates elsewhere along with moderate to locally fresh return
flow. Otherwise, dense fog and hazy conditions continue to be
reported over the NW waters N of 26N. The moderate to fresh
southerly flow will persist into Mon, when a cold front will move
off the Texas coast. The front will move across the basin early
next week, before stalling and dissipating over the Straits of
Florida through late Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Shallow moisture continue to move across the NW and north-central
Caribbean supporting showers and tstms across Jamaica and
adjacent waters. Otherwise, fair weather conditions prevails
elsewhere being supported by a broad middle level ridge that will
dominate the region the next several days. High pressure north of
the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the
southeast and south central Caribbean through early next week,
reaching near gale force off Colombia mainly at night. The pattern
will also support fresh to strong winds through the Gulf of
Honduras into early next week. Fresh NE swell will impact the
waters east of the Leeward Islands through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough prevails over the SW Atlantic from 30N59W to
24N70W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are W of the trough
and across the Bahamas. This shower activity is being supported by
a middle to upper level trough that is also supporting a frontal
boundary that will move N of the area tonight through Sat morning.
Strong winds and associated seas as well as the shower activity
associated with the trough will diminish Sat morning as the trough
lifts north of the area. Weak ridging will build in the wake of
the trough into early next week. The ridge will move east Mon
ahead of a cold front moving off the southeast coast of United
States by late Tue into early Wed. Otherwise, surface high
pressure prevails elsewhere supporting fair weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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