[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Sub-tropical Storm Leslie centered near 34.4N 50.8W at 29/1500
UTC or 710 nm ENE of Bermuda moving SW at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Some strengthening is forecast
during this time period also. Scattered moderate convection is
from 31N-36N between 47W-52W. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 27W from 02N-18N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of  10N, where the
wave meets the monsoon trough. This feature shows up well in the
Total Precipitable Water animation, and continues to have a sharp
trough at the surface as seen on the latest scatterometer pass.

A tropical wave has its axis along 49W from 07N-19N, moving W at
10 kt. The TPW imagery shows a maximum E of the wave's axis and
there is a trough in the GFS 700 mb analyses, but little signature
is seen at the surface. Scattered showers are developing within
75 nm to the east of the wave's axis between 10N-13N.

A tropical wave extends across the eastern Caribbean, with axis
along 68W and between 07N-19N. TPW imagery depicts abundant
moisture in the eastern Caribbean mainly east of 70W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed east of the wave's axis from 11N-
17N between 61W-67W.

A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean along 87W
from 21N southward. A pronounced 700 mb trough in the GFS analysis
is noted with the wave, but little signature of the wave is seen
at the surface. The wave, along with the monsoon trough, is
enhancing scattered showers within 180 nm of the wave's axis
mainly south of 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W and
continues SW to near 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to
08N47W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N51W and extends
to the coast of South America near 09N60W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the monsoon trough and over the ITCZ
between 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a stationary front extends from S Mississippi to
SW Louisiana. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front
affecting the northwest Gulf waters north of 27N and west of 90W.
A surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche along 97W with
scattered moderate convection. Current winds across the basin are
gentle to moderate. Little change is expected over the gulf waters
during the next couple of days. Seas will remain below 8 ft
through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. See the Tropical
Waves section above for details. Recent scatterometer data
indicate that gentle to moderate trades prevail across most of the
basin except in the vicinity of the tropical wave across the
eastern Caribbean. In this area, fresh winds prevail mainly east
of 66W. Large northerly swell associated with Leslie will affect
the tropical Atlantic waters tonight through Sunday, building seas
to 10-11 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are currently between the coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. See the Tropical Waves section above for
details. A surface trough enters the forecast region near 30N39W
then continues SW to 21N48W with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. This feature is associated with Leslie, currently
centered N of the area. Please, see the Special Features Section
above for more details.

Large swell generated by Leslie is expected to propagate across
the waters east of 75W, reaching the Bahamas the waters N of
Hispaniola and the Atlantic Passages E of la Mona Passage today,
and the north and central coast of Florida by tonight.

A ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure located near 31N70W
across the western Atlantic reaching Florida. Another ridge
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic E of the aforementioned
trough.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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