[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 AM EDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Sub-tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 35.2N 50.3W at 29/0900
UTC, or 740 nm ENE of Bermuda, moving SW at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A slower southwestward motion is
expected during the next several days. Some strengthening is
forecast during this time period also. Scattered moderate
convection is from 31N-35N between 47W-52W. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 25W from 03N-18N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave
axis south of 10N. This system shows up well in the Total
Precipitable Water animation, and also has a sharp trough at the
surface as seen by the latest ASCAT scatterometer pass.

A tropical wave is along 48W from 02N-17N, moving W at 15 kt. The
TPW imagery shows a maximum E of the wave axis and there is a
trough in the GFS 700 mb analyses, but little signature is seen at
the surface. Scattered showers are developing within 75 nm to the
east of the wave's axis between 10N-13N.

The remnants of Kirk were analyzed as a tropical wave, with axis
along 67W and between 07N-19N. TPW imagery depicts abundant
moisture in the eastern Caribbean mainly east of 70W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed east of the wave's axis from 11N-
17N between 61W- 67W.

A tropical wave is moving across the west Caribbean along 86W
from 21N southward. A pronounced 700 mb trough in the GFS analysis
is noted with the wave, but little signature of the wave is seen
at the surface. The wave, along with the monsoon trough, is
enhancing scattered showers within 180 nm of the wave's axis
mainly south of 17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 15N17W and
continues SW to near 06N24W to 05N34W. The ITCZ extends from
05N34W to 09N46W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near
08N46W and extends to the coast of South America near 07N58W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 22W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a stationary front extends from S Mississippi to
SW Louisiana. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front.
Current winds across the Gulf are moderate breeze or weaker out of
the east. The frontal boundary should drift E today with little
change to the Gulf winds during the next couple of days. Seas will
remain below 8 ft through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of Kirk are now a tropical wave, while another wave
is moving across the western Caribbean. See the Tropical Wave
section above for details. Recent scatterometer data indicate
generally easterly moderate breeze or weaker winds ahead of the
remnants of Kirk, except for an outflow boundary enhancement of
winds to 25 kt in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Expect mainly
moderate to fresh winds through early next week. Large northerly
swell associated with Leslie will affect the tropical Atlantic
waters tonight through Sunday, building seas to 10 or 11 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are currently between the coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. A stationary front enters the forecast region
near 31N40W then continues SW to 21N52W. This front is associated
with Leslie centered N of the area. Please, see the Special
Features Section above for more details.

Large swell generated by Leslie is expected to propagate across
the waters east of 75W tonight, reaching the Bahamas the waters N
of Hispaniola and the Atlantic Passages E of la Mona Passage by
early Saturday, and the north and central coast of Florida later
on Saturday.

A ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure located near 32N70W
across the western Atlantic reaching Florida. Another ridge
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic E of the aforementioned
front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa/ERA
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