[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
116 AM EDT Sat Sep 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Remnants Of Kirk are centered near 15.1N 65.8W at 29/0300 UTC or
170 nm SSW of St. Croix moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt
with gusts to 45 kt. The remnants of Kirk is now a tropical wave
along 66W south of 19N, with a gale area from 14N to 16N between
63W and 66W. The remnants of Kirk are expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches across St.
Croix and eastern Puerto Rico overnight through Saturday. The gale
is forecast to persist until 29/1200 UTC. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 11N-17N between 60W-66W.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 35.7N 49.4W at 29/0300
UTC or 790 nm ENE of Bermuda moving WSW at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A slower west-southwestward or
southwestward motion is expected during the next several days.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 30N-36N between
47W-52W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 24W from 03N-18N, moving W at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave
axis south of 07N. This system shows up well in the Total
Precipitable Water animation, and also has a sharp trough at the
surface as seen by the ASCAT scatterometer pass. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 23W-28W.

A tropical wave is along 47W from 02N-17N, moving W at 15 kt. The
TPW imagery shows a maximum E of the wave axis and there is a
trough in the GFS 700 mb analyses, but little signature is seen at
the surface. No significant convection is currently associated
with the wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea along 83W from
21N southward. A pronounced 700 mb trough in the GFS analysis is
noted with the wave, but little signature of the wave is seen at
the surface. The wave, along with the monsoon trough, is helping
to induce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within
180 nm of the wave axis south of 14N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 15N17W and
continues SW to near 06N24W to 05N34W. The ITCZ extends from
05N34W to 09N46W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near
08N46W and extends to the coast of South America near 07N58W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between
28W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail end of a cold front extends from S Mississippi to SW
Louisiana. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front.
Current winds across the Gulf are moderate breeze or weaker out
of the east. The frontal boundary should drift E Saturday with
little change to the Gulf winds during the next couple of days.
Seas will remain below 8 ft through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of Kirk is now a tropical wave with a gale area. See
the Special Features section above. Another tropical wave is
moving across the western Caribbean Sea. See the Tropical Wave
section for details. Recent scatterometer data indicate generally
easterly moderate breeze or weaker winds ahead of the remnants of
Kirk, except for an outflow boundary enhancement of winds to 25
kt in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Expect mainly moderate to
fresh winds through early next week. Large northerly swell
associated with Leslie will affect the tropical Atlantic waters
tonight through Sunday, building seas to 10 or 11 ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are currently between the coast of Africa and
the Lesser Antilles. A stationary front enters the forecast region
near 31N40W then continues SW to 21N53W. This front is associated
with Leslie centered N of the area. Please, see Special Features
Section for more details.

Large swell generated by Leslie is expected to propagate across
the waters east of 75W tonight, reaching the Bahamas the waters N
of Hispaniola and the Atlantic Passages E of la Mona Passage by
early Saturday, and the north and central coast of Florida later
on Saturday.

A ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure located near 32N69W
across the western Atlantic reaching Florida. Another ridge
dominates the remainder of the Atlantic E of the aforementioned
cold front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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